Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda951adb8877dced424616881249244808ffc0d045e6adefdcbd54d1e2dcfcbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $253,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 8,709$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.61 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…99c3backed Yes | 30c | 7,721$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…401cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,576$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 19c | 7,446$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…0670backed No | 70c | 7,302$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 9c | 6,710$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.02 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 46c | 6,255$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.19 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…5d03backed Yes | 2c | 4,323$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,251$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 67c | 2,678$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes | 56c | 2,510$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 2,175$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,151$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…cb76backed No | 70c | 2,055$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 75c | 1,999$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.75 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd434…b5debacked No | 73c | 1,981$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…0ef0backed Yes | 30c | 1,908$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,790$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed Yes | 1c | 1,711$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…392fbacked No | 70c | 1,705$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…b5ebbacked Yes | 30c | 1,590$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a87…d9e5backed No | 70c | 1,292$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…5d5fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,147$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 3c | 1,068$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,035$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 1,011$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,011$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 10c | 997.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 972.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 11c | 936.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0166backed No | 79c | 915.78$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 812.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…1facbacked Yes | 3c | 727.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 614.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…3f6cbacked Yes | 2c | 575$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 55c | 546.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 9c | 520$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 501.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…0b12backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 461.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…e203backed No | 74c | 449.15$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 22c | 430$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 72c | 305.48$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…b78abacked Yes | 6c | 263.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes | 10c | 262$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…46aabacked Yes | 9c | 226.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a4…8f65backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 199.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 51c | 190$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed No | 56c | 177$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 58c | 170.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 58c | 170.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 10c | 154.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 53c | 137.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abb…ebeebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5aa…a4b4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 25c | 120.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…5ea0backed No | 70c | 115.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…af1dbacked Yes | 30c | 104.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…ad29backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6379…55e4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…5a11backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 70c | 72.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ff47backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…3163backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…8ad7backed Yes | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 46c | 27.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…7acbbacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01bd…a2f9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…f0abbacked No | 79c | 17.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.