TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$253,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,373 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c8,709$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.61330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb35f…99c3backed Yes30c7,721$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa6…401cbacked Yes2c7,576$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c7,446$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.5887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd86c…0670backed No70c7,302$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes9c6,710$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.023953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes46c6,255$2,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.1958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed Yes2c4,323$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,251$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.591,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No67c2,678$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes56c2,510$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.533935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes9c2,175$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.73324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,151$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.176785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…cb76backed No70c2,055$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes4c2,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.347810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No75c1,999$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.756657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd434…b5debacked No73c1,981$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5a…0ef0backed Yes30c1,908$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes5c1,790$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.51921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes1c1,711$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fa4…392fbacked No70c1,705$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,647$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1443…b5ebbacked Yes30c1,590$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a87…d9e5backed No70c1,292$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd5…5d5fbacked Yes30c1,147$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0c…c312backed Yes3c1,068$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27567.1%4 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes4c1,035$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.426221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes7c1,011$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.93998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes3c1,011$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes10c997.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c972.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.992125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes11c936.18$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.252213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb17…0166backed No79c915.78$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c812.46$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x750e…1facbacked Yes3c727.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2edb…9ac5backed No78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.035448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c614.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.049022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5831…3f6cbacked Yes2c575$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes55c546.2$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes9c520$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes18c501.41$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.866111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdb…0b12backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes4c499.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-75.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c461.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb424…e203backed No74c449.15$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.151478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes22c430$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No72c305.48$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4821651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…b78abacked Yes6c263.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes10c262$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2540…46aabacked Yes9c226.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a4…8f65backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes9c199.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No51c190$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.14650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…cc52backed No56c177$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.624355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No58c170.69$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked No58c170.69$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6914340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes10c154.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed No53c137.74$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.743050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6374…891fbacked No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.213455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0abb…ebeebacked Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5aa…a4b4backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes25c120.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.498521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54da…5ea0backed No70c115.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510c…af1dbacked Yes30c104.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21bc…ad29backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f0…8670backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.881861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6379…55e4backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7345…5a11backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No70c72.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.918162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e93…e71abacked Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303729.7%11 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aad…ff47backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61090%9 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.43per pick47cpaid+120.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked No51c39.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.591233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+71.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x359c…3163backed Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid+288.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7810067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1971…8ad7backed Yes54c27.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No46c27.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.992528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x415a…7acbbacked Yes55c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01bd…a2f9backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5709…f0abbacked No79c17.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.