Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4db772226514bd9f9cc7e29fe8aecd5e74b058219ad3359f112dbfdbc50cfd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 73c | 15,936$11,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,312.07 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…5040backed No | 29c | 6,133$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 70c | 4,462$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.55 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 30c | 2,838$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.68 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…9dc1backed Yes | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 2,026$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.44 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 60c | 1,858$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.12 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…31c4backed No | 17c | 1,592$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.7 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 20c | 1,500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 49c | 1,438$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.64 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 32c | 904.67$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.75 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 47c | 797.21$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.55 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked Yes | 68c | 710.27$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.27 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…5464backed No | 26c | 650$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 15c | 647$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b6…4c95backed No | 22c | 618$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 56c | 538.88$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.29 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…e4a7backed No | 25c | 479.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…45adbacked No | 52c | 421.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 17c | 408.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed No | 10c | 399.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 49c | 393.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 50c | 376.01$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked No | 27c | 353.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 77c | 315.08$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed No | 19c | 299.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…8671backed Yes | 51c | 298.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed No | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed No | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…6db6backed No | 54c | 153.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 45c | 130.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed Yes | 58c | 115.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…ad29backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 80c | 83.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 78.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…fdfbbacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…564dbacked No | 24c | 66.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…9783backed No | 45c | 66.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…76dcbacked No | 29c | 62.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 61c | 56.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…dfdcbacked Yes | 55c | 50.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…4330backed Yes | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…0241backed Yes | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…c33ebacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…2280backed Yes | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d87…4e60backed No | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc702…0541backed No | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5c9fbacked Yes | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…4009backed No | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…337ebacked No | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…6788backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…e136backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…4680backed No | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2485…0cb2backed Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…b530backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 40c | 38.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…2ce0backed Yes | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…3644backed No | 48c | 31.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…45f2backed Yes | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 68c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Yes | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +164%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…6d62backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.