TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$767,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$716,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe09…3a44backed No0c282,681$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe454…b41cbacked No0c65,254$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba99…3106backed No0c52,335$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe66a…a0a0backed No0c46,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb64…1975backed No0c40,600$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.41127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed No0c20,779$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.34348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+86.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44e9…3a6fbacked No0c18,826$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x692d…97afbacked No0c16,369$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9952…2edbbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9954…63cfbacked No0c14,662$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed No0c11,866$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.736756.7%38 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b68…8f64backed No0c9,036$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc625…42c8backed No1c7,400$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No13c6,698$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.493363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+30.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9fb6…d457backed No0c6,111$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed Yes11c5,334$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,759.963450%17 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x556b…454cbacked No0c5,008$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc65…448dbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed No5c4,905$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0211…d013backed Yes53c4,500$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes56c4,248$2,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.8438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes17c3,535$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.8142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed No4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No69c2,627$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.5416638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes18c2,576$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.4748630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7f…22bdbacked No1c2,400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes30c2,383$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.611833.9%40 W · 78 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes21c2,102$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.88433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4932…69c6backed No1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes51c1,294$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.9838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes36c1,269$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.3722227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3953…cb4ebacked No1c1,220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9006832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No13c999.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13047334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes13c924$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No16c891.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.814928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No78c685.99$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.877558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf74f…57f6backed No2c676.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes20c646.32$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.8315523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes12c523$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.337938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes39c513.18$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.25736.8%21 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes13c511$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.572360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No62c503.61$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes21c499.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9916541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No55c491.64$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7811615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes41c488.92$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.922347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes22c405.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.9221926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No76c400$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30416553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1804736.2%17 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes49c376.19$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4715643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes17c329.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.478224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No16c315.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6834432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes22c314.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.0513538.5%52 W · 83 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c309.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes27c306.38$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6829027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No51c297.51$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes18c291.85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.3512830.5%39 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed Yes12c275$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2422161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c259$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.671,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…4e30backed Yes13c230.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9143…9235backed No45c223.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-81.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…9080backed No9c220$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81225%3 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+122.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes17c219.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.397032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No70c210$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22b2…564bbacked No79c205.06$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes48c202.66$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4915951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No30c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.472142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes19c199$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0911424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c194.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.6543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes44c165.38$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.952634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d0…d7a1backed No36c151.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.544544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf072…cee7backed Yes17c150$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.52927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No47c149.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee2b…312fbacked No17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+257.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd9…2c47backed No16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f8…fcaebacked No17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e8…38b0backed No16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bfe…b139backed No17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed No79c114.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.772147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa7…6132backed Yes66c100.72$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.896835.3%24 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a3…4707backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55933.3%3 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-46.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8428126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed No75c93.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706254.8%34 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x911e…a858backed Yes21c85.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.713100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+224.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes55c80.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1120438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes79c66.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No46c64.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6340939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No77c51.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…d5dfbacked No23c50.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.593850%19 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcc3…d64abacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0712433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x025e…8f22backed No23c45.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.523650%18 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.64461.4%27 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+69.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf7a9…c840backed No66c27.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.275644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+68.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9536634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1e…0a48backed No63c22.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.181650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.