Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb393ce38aa3d53291cff3120cbcaf2ab89d239dfe397716b1d4f8230deb2eb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $767,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $716,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe09…3a44backed No | 0c | 282,681$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…b41cbacked No | 0c | 65,254$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…3106backed No | 0c | 52,335$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed No | 0c | 46,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…1975backed No | 0c | 40,600$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 0c | 20,779$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…3a6fbacked No | 0c | 18,826$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…97afbacked No | 0c | 16,369$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…63cfbacked No | 0c | 14,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 0c | 11,866$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…8f64backed No | 0c | 9,036$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…42c8backed No | 1c | 7,400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 13c | 6,698$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.49 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…d457backed No | 0c | 6,111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 11c | 5,334$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,759.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…454cbacked No | 0c | 5,008$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…448dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed No | 5c | 4,905$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…d013backed Yes | 53c | 4,500$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 56c | 4,248$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.84 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 17c | 3,535$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.81 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 69c | 2,627$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.54 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 2,576$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.47 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7f…22bdbacked No | 1c | 2,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 30c | 2,383$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.6 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,102$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.8 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…69c6backed No | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 51c | 1,294$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.98 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,269$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.37 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3953…cb4ebacked No | 1c | 1,220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 13c | 924$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 891.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 78c | 685.99$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.87 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf74f…57f6backed No | 2c | 676.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 20c | 646.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.83 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 12c | 523$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.33 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 39c | 513.18$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 13c | 511$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 62c | 503.61$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.17 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.99 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 55c | 491.64$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.78 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes | 41c | 488.92$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 22c | 405.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.92 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 49c | 376.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 17c | 329.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.47 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 315.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 314.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.05 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 309.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 27c | 306.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.68 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 297.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 18c | 291.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.35 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 259$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…4e30backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9143…9235backed No | 45c | 223.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 9c | 220$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 17c | 219.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.39 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 70c | 210$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…564bbacked No | 79c | 205.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 202.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 19c | 199$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.09 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 194.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes | 44c | 165.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 36c | 151.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 149.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…312fbacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…2c47backed No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…fcaebacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…38b0backed No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…b139backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 79c | 114.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Yes | 66c | 100.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…4707backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 75c | 93.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911e…a858backed Yes | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 55c | 80.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 66.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 46c | 64.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked No | 23c | 50.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…d64abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed No | 23c | 45.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…c840backed No | 66c | 27.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 63c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.