Movies · resolved market
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7715f14a5b81ca1eeada6df3e10a29e853c87576acabc4ecc0f339d1e3614d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 10c | 6,536$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.86 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 27c | 5,407$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 20c | 4,160$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 11c | 2,492$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 10c | 2,039$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,289$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 21c | 1,200$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,099$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ec…2552backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 75c | 999.99$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 23c | 929$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes | 2c | 833.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 19c | 574.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 22c | 540.79$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 20c | 511.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 449.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 437.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 19c | 409.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 323.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 305$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 18c | 269.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 8c | 268.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044d…71fabacked Yes | 21c | 242.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 203.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 173.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 32c | 156$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 154.43$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 139.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 115.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 14c | 107.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 77c | 76.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 75.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 17c | 72.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes | 24c | 43.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…262abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?this page
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?No won
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?Yes won
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.