TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb028…8686backed Yes52c24,454$12,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,842.1923639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5684…7874backed No56c6,334$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.583636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes65c4,932$3,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.8229735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e6…c1bfbacked No7c3,106$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked No14c2,710$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.83488.3%4 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes41c2,324$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.7328524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No33c2,284$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.8417540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed Yes44c2,260$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.136028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c2,082$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66440%0 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No58c2,039$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.6326041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No15c2,028$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.825848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No35c1,982$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.272619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-60%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes54c1,810$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.4212631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf8…026dbacked No6c1,629$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes74c1,424$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.7118746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No44c1,197$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8513337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No52c1,139$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.7828528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c966.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.492109.5%20 W · 190 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No48c932.74$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.995545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No54c847.61$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.711650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes49c806$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.8613635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No56c728.56$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.243132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed No57c654.77$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.227860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c600$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No2c564.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.274233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked No20c519.21$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8411421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No13c499.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665619.6%11 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No3c499.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No4c492.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.16746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No56c474.89$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes55c437.85$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b92…6088backed No13c412.05$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1c…fb66backed No50c393.07$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed No54c371.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No64c357$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.423041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe61d…e172backed Yes45c350$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.93246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No4c317.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No44c270.26$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4526431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf70…7350backed No64c269.39$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.922846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed No5c227.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.871216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a26…5284backed No67c221.94$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No54c214.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.220841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1596…c8dcbacked No19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No58c205$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.73729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No56c179$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.416741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No65c169$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2515149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No49c165.68$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1811625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…5499backed Yes57c152.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.595427.8%15 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No44c144.23$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.821,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No60c136.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.429851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555a…931abacked Yes38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2384…e4d5backed Yes52c128.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No21c125.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9110814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked No59c115.22$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.43955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes41c115.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3111825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No55c110.92$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0113321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No57c100.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.276619.7%13 W · 53 L-14.5wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-65%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6216237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4914425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No16c99.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3314337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa935…9d16backed No55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No64c83$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.122437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0625…7965backed No64c79.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be8…97fcbacked No34c73.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x717f…3fb1backed No60c69.59$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f89…3111backed No56c65.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba54…409fbacked No38c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.451346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No61c64.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.394055%22 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7d…1c5bbacked No61c57.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf71…5570backed Yes46c56.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No57c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.063658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c55.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1187033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c54.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9889…4839backed No38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2819240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Yes44c48.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes29c44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.255729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e43…7a47backed Yes50c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes42c43.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.42850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d1…d06cbacked Yes52c40.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No61c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x891e…c1c9backed No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-75.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ba…9ed8backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c29…bd99backed Yes42c35.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.971353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bd…3c32backed Yes48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea3…0760backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed No49c28.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed No54c28.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.435650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed No63c23.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+98.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2472…7e36backed Yes69c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.29540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x957c…2965backed No62c19.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.