Movies · resolved market
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ee98008d133ca27ae0ce79a5e7a71a8705f2a6cde0a3681ea29756ff26d03d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 52c | 24,454$12,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,842.19 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed No | 56c | 6,334$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.58 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 65c | 4,932$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.82 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…c1bfbacked No | 7c | 3,106$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 14c | 2,710$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.83 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 41c | 2,324$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.73 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 33c | 2,284$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.84 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 44c | 2,260$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.13 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,082$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 58c | 2,039$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.63 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 15c | 2,028$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.82 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 35c | 1,982$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.27 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,810$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.42 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…026dbacked No | 6c | 1,629$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 74c | 1,424$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.71 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 1,197$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.85 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 52c | 1,139$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.78 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 966.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 48c | 932.74$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.99 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 54c | 847.61$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 49c | 806$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.86 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 56c | 728.56$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.24 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 57c | 654.77$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.22 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 600$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 2c | 564.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 20c | 519.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 13c | 499.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 492.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 56c | 474.89$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.85 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 437.85$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.53 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…6088backed No | 13c | 412.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed No | 50c | 393.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 54c | 371.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 64c | 357$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.4 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 45c | 350$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 317.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 44c | 270.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed No | 64c | 269.39$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 5c | 227.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed No | 67c | 221.94$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 54c | 214.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…c8dcbacked No | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 58c | 205$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 179$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 65c | 169$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 49c | 165.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 57c | 152.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 144.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 60c | 136.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 52c | 128.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 21c | 125.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 59c | 115.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 41c | 115.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 55c | 110.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 57c | 100.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 99.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 64c | 83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…7965backed No | 64c | 79.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…97fcbacked No | 34c | 73.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 60c | 69.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…3111backed No | 56c | 65.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked No | 38c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 61c | 64.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…1c5bbacked No | 61c | 57.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf71…5570backed Yes | 46c | 56.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 55.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 54.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…4839backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Yes | 44c | 48.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…7a47backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 42c | 43.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…d06cbacked Yes | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 61c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ba…9ed8backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…bd99backed Yes | 42c | 35.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…0760backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed No | 49c | 28.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 54c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…7e36backed Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…2965backed No | 62c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?this page
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?No won
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?No won
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.