Movies · resolved market
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ada7e1ce377683ad50c964807b1e13bb77bf42b1eac30db1325487b5dc305fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 24c | 4,105$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.91 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 2,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,345$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.32 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 15c | 2,229$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.09 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 37c | 1,126$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.56 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 919.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 26c | 799.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 747.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 664.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 34c | 662$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.55 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 28c | 650.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.98 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 17c | 589.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 537.06$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 35c | 502$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 18c | 487$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 400$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 31c | 389$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 320.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes | 10c | 299.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 282.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 269.18$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 69c | 260$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 38c | 244.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 66c | 214.53$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 7c | 211$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 160.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 28c | 120.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 115.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 114.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 74c | 104.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…6088backed Yes | 25c | 102$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 79c | 96.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 87.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 26c | 77.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…8363backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed Yes | 17c | 58.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 50.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…bd99backed Yes | 37c | 40.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 34.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…3ab7backed No | 71c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…c15dbacked No | 71c | 24.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?this page
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?No won
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?Yes won
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.