TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,506,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,522,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,506,807 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0bd…e598backed No0c1,519,964$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb4d…f155backed No0c184,016$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No16c58,787$9,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,393.596233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No19c36,362$6,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,735.8315020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No8c17,158$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.4411921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b6…676fbacked No7c15,110$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.481513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-75.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes67c13,651$9,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,541.8410930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d57…c5b6backed No22c13,401$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.591421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed No11c11,269$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.495525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No10c10,971$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.857041.4%29 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No18c10,819$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.527335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No1c10,201$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No12c8,550$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.7311734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No13c8,340$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.722147.6%10 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+67.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x740c…d013backed No10c8,037$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.564122%9 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed No13c7,218$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.581216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No29c7,000$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.75527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No16c6,510$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.8934534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x171f…6190backed No2c5,804$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.552231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed No0c5,414$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.834723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked No12c4,824$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2991…e214backed No6c4,687$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No16c4,511$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.13948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5b…a7cebacked No23c4,214$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x546e…2266backed No15c3,858$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.91030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed No8c3,821$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.711216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes74c3,800$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.513949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xce2b…3a57backed No5c3,365$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No6c3,329$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.766325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No44c3,020$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ece…32e6backed No40c2,957$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed No12c2,868$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.952817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-73.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed No37c2,854$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No12c2,698$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.663023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-58%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ac2…3606backed No16c2,530$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+124.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc841…196ebacked No6c2,471$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd57e…ecf2backed No20c2,402$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No13c2,329$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.354542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Yes74c2,227$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.879758.8%57 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed8…7c2fbacked No9c2,175$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No7c2,171$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.291884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b3…2baabacked No10c2,113$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd867…e1f3backed No20c2,045$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c2,017$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.392324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed Yes72c1,910$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.141283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+30.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e87…9a3fbacked No10c1,898$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.311931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc31…7e2bbacked No14c1,874$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265345.9%2 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No10c1,809$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.081035.8%6 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes79c1,772$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.143033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x157c…7c73backed No11c1,763$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef44…5483backed No13c1,638$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-76.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No18c1,600$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea7…9754backed No11c1,600$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd442…b4eebacked No20c1,548$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3f…9ed2backed No10c1,506$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.19267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-85.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1358637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No17c1,492$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8711628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b4…8f9abacked No9c1,484$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed No6c1,359$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.232119%4 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No24c1,335$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6211838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No18c1,310$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7921228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x627d…7d68backed No5c1,182$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.091741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x811f…16e3backed No17c1,148$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.19520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked No15c1,118$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.572334.8%8 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x388e…1867backed No16c1,096$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.871513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b0…000dbacked No13c1,002$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.24966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+62%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa232…d79bbacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2c…7aadbacked No7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-19.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No11c994.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.672634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No8c988.23$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.961212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed No8c986.3$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.872722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014a…eaa7backed No11c976.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3d…2ff5backed No8c950$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782548%12 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4c…de22backed No11c903.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.371546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2f9…a986backed No16c886.26$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No29c851.25$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.023324.2%8 W · 25 L-7.1wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbc74…e32bbacked No22c840.95$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No8c819.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed No13c807.95$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.956526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a5…4dd9backed No8c806.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No20c778.58$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.83488.3%4 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed No25c773.57$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.764639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba7…434cbacked No6c739.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.161643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a1…cea5backed No6c727.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b0…5676backed No14c713.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x845d…4714backed No13c701.71$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4351…4276backed No11c697.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a85…c04bbacked No2c690.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x680b…1077backed Yes73c651.47$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.93265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No15c602.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5212126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked No10c599.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No10c599.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe740…f9e3backed No30c588.66$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked No16c586.07$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.313116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ff…a454backed No25c582.05$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.68922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc042…77bcbacked No13c574.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x829b…4892backed No13c555.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7780%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No13c555$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.153154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed No17c549.59$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.05326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No19c523.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.324035%14 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.