UFC · resolved market
Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9552b421a0000d6208155fc39c4a9086cea41d4600c4fdd5f747a4282c1bb8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked No | 57c | 12,967$7,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,545.95 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 41c | 6,945$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.39 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 43c | 6,944$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac4…387ebacked Yes | 42c | 3,267$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 59c | 2,534$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…f714backed Yes | 43c | 1,162$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 59c | 600.76$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.97 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Yes | 40c | 378.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…7b1fbacked Yes | 42c | 237.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 42c | 230.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…a4f1backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 57c | 200.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0924…1236backed Yes | 46c | 184.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 43c | 162.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 54c | 114$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…4b16backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 44c | 57.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cf…cb94backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…aa80backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…b4e7backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…2286backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…39c7backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…0778backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 36c | 28.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 35c | 28.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…de80backed No | 64c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…8b40backed No | 63c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)Tsarukyan won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.