College Football · resolved market
Toledo vs. Louisville
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e61f7e9053341e4df6e33118cfa145d116667e74989dec40df01c7394b3e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Toledo, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,300,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,490,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,300,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Toledo | 22c | 374,254$81,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,650.53 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Louisville | 77c | 200,000$154,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,868.03 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Toledo | 22c | 83,830$18,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,442.68 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…2fdabacked Louisville | 80c | 83,319$66,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,846.06 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Louisville | 79c | 63,279$49,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,288.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville | 78c | 53,314$41,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,782.73 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Toledo | 20c | 48,810$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Louisville | 79c | 48,640$38,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,243.68 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Toledo | 19c | 37,326$7,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,164.94 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toledo | 22c | 34,805$7,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,640.95 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Louisville | 78c | 32,723$25,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,165.1 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Louisville | 79c | 31,746$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,745.62 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisville | 79c | 29,594$23,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,264.07 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Toledo | 22c | 29,389$6,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,459.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…9720backed Toledo | 22c | 29,269$6,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,439.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Toledo | 20c | 25,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Louisville | 78c | 20,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Toledo | 21c | 20,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.99 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Louisville | 76c | 20,000$15,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,811.54 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Toledo | 0c | 15,904$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Toledo | 22c | 13,000$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,860 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Toledo | 19c | 10,020$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.79 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Louisville | 78c | 9,613$7,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.83 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked Toledo | 24c | 8,816$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Toledo | 24c | 6,245$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Toledo | 9c | 5,673$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.41 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville | 80c | 5,600$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Louisville | 79c | 5,316$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.44 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Louisville | 79c | 4,642$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.93 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Toledo | 21c | 4,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Toledo | 22c | 3,740$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Toledo | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…e675backed Toledo | 9c | 2,740$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Louisville | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Louisville | 76c | 2,500$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Louisville | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Toledo | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Louisville | 78c | 2,404$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…110bbacked Toledo | 22c | 2,298$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Toledo | 22c | 2,220$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.22 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Toledo | 4c | 2,142$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Toledo | 22c | 2,025$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.43 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Toledo | 5c | 1,873$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Louisville | 80c | 1,870$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.5 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Toledo | 22c | 1,820$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.03 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Toledo | 9c | 1,715$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Toledo | 23c | 1,675$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.92 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Toledo | 24c | 1,668$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.87 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo | 20c | 1,661$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.49 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Toledo | 17c | 1,564$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…5f7cbacked Louisville | 76c | 1,390$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…7ec7backed Toledo | 24c | 1,388$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Toledo | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…9f90backed Toledo | 24c | 1,310$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Toledo | 19c | 1,307$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Toledo | 21c | 1,295$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville | 77c | 1,294$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.43 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Toledo | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Toledo | 24c | 1,100$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Louisville | 80c | 1,066$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Toledo | 15c | 1,061$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Toledo | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Louisville | 79c | 999.98$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Toledo | 22c | 932.93$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Toledo | 19c | 887.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Toledo | 22c | 881.54$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…0908backed Louisville | 78c | 875.55$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Louisville | 76c | 859$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Toledo | 18c | 722.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Toledo | 18c | 677.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Toledo | 25c | 650$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Toledo | 26c | 649.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.97 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Louisville | 80c | 627.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…c541backed Toledo | 7c | 559.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Toledo | 21c | 554.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Toledo | 22c | 517.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…cc4cbacked Toledo | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Toledo | 5c | 479$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Louisville | 78c | 473.08$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Toledo | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked Toledo | 22c | 453.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Toledo | 22c | 440.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Toledo | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Toledo | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed Toledo | 27c | 397.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3f0abacked Toledo | 22c | 374.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Louisville | 78c | 365.83$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Toledo | 4c | 364.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Toledo | 22c | 355.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Toledo | 22c | 352.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…018dbacked Louisville | 78c | 352.11$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Louisville | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Louisville | 78c | 347.28$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…0df0backed Toledo | 4c | 344.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Louisville | 78c | 321.79$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…61d1backed Toledo | 18c | 314.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…56d8backed Toledo | 22c | 300.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Louisville | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Toledo | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…5305backed Louisville | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toledo vs. Louisvillethis page
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville (-11.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-12.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-8.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-9.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.