TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Toledo vs. Louisville

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Louisvilleof Toledo, Louisville
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,300,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,490,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,300,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd38b…5029backed Toledo22c374,254$81,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,650.5332745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Louisville77c200,000$154,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,868.033164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Toledo22c83,830$18,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,442.6810448.1%50 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Louisville80c83,319$66,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,846.063345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Louisville79c63,279$49,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,288.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville78c53,314$41,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,782.7352449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Toledo20c48,810$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0003951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Louisville79c48,640$38,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,243.6821055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Toledo19c37,326$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,164.944738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Toledo22c34,805$7,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,640.9538450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Louisville78c32,723$25,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,165.111849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Louisville79c31,746$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,745.6219362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Louisville79c29,594$23,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,264.0758850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Toledo22c29,389$6,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,459.82035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed Toledo22c29,269$6,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,439.251040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Toledo20c25,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.953540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Louisville78c20,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40010047%47 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Toledo21c20,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.996046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Louisville76c20,000$15,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,811.5427246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Toledo0c15,904$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.35490%0 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Toledo22c13,000$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8604429.5%13 W · 31 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Toledo19c10,020$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.798948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Louisville78c9,613$7,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.835064%32 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Toledo24c8,816$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.862528%7 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Toledo24c6,245$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.751926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Toledo9c5,673$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.419124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville80c5,600$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12029055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Louisville79c5,316$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.4465945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Louisville79c4,642$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.939457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Toledo21c4,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8302441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Toledo22c3,740$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.483240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Toledo16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Toledo9c2,740$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+93.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Louisville79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5254643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Louisville76c2,500$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60039954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Louisville79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Toledo23c2,500$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5751741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0801…35cbbacked Louisville78c2,404$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.9977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…110bbacked Toledo22c2,298$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Toledo22c2,220$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2216234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Toledo4c2,142$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5719842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Toledo22c2,025$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.437342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Toledo5c1,873$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6711541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Louisville80c1,870$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.564841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Toledo22c1,820$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.033138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Toledo9c1,715$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6420553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Toledo23c1,675$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.927642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Toledo24c1,668$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8763243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Toledo20c1,661$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.492,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Toledo17c1,564$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8b…5f7cbacked Louisville76c1,390$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.48366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf6…7ec7backed Toledo24c1,388$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Toledo22c1,364$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3371…9f90backed Toledo24c1,310$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Toledo19c1,307$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.333748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Toledo21c1,295$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.634641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville77c1,294$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.4350358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Toledo21c1,200$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527254.2%39 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Toledo24c1,100$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26447131.4%148 W · 323 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a09…3c83backed Louisville80c1,066$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.661154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Toledo15c1,061$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Toledo22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Louisville79c999.98$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Toledo22c932.93$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5226846.3%124 W · 144 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Toledo19c887.44$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6110848.1%52 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed Toledo22c881.54$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.933240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540a…0908backed Louisville78c875.55$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Louisville76c859$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Toledo18c722.2$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302536%9 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Toledo18c677.19$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.151154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Toledo25c650$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.513531.9%43 W · 92 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Toledo26c649.46$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.975127.5%14 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Louisville80c627.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.066753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bb…c541backed Toledo7c559.46$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a7…07cdbacked Toledo21c554.46$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.412429.2%7 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-41.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Toledo22c517.04$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7522030.5%67 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c9…cc4cbacked Toledo7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Toledo5c479$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.952536%9 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Louisville78c473.08$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.087553.3%40 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0812backed Toledo22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a3…102cbacked Toledo22c453.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.491747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ad…6a69backed Toledo22c440.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.152657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Toledo24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked Toledo25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007445.9%34 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed Toledo27c397.5$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.92944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3f0abacked Toledo22c374.24$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.613351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Louisville78c365.83$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4893548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Toledo4c364.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Toledo22c355.31$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.287749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196a…f34fbacked Toledo22c352.43$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.762853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked Louisville78c352.11$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.213743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Louisville78c350$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774052.5%21 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Louisville78c347.28$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.44151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60aa…0df0backed Toledo4c344.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Louisville78c321.79$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.791040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…61d1backed Toledo18c314.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.31323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x426b…56d8backed Toledo22c300.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Louisville79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6313444%59 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Toledo22c300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.66241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4266…5305backed Louisville79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.