College Football · resolved market
Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ba53ac602d06c85004f9f27d746cb031dd09ec9d4d63f5b18629c86ecd40d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 17,598$9,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,404.7 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 48c | 14,021$6,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,729.73 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 11,713$5,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,528.29 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Over | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 2,060$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.04 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 54c | 1,254$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,212$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.64 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 54c | 1,170$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.1 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 47c | 968$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.57 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 56c | 896.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 800$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Over | 52c | 579.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…641dbacked Over | 53c | 376.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 49c | 369.39$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 49c | 335.04$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 287$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…a6e2backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Over | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 99.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 45c | 99.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 76c | 94.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 47c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 48c | 67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae0…027cbacked Over | 56c | 60.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 47c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5this page
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville (-11.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-12.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-8.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-9.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. LouisvilleLouisville won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.