College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50013954fb546374b5474013ae95abfa1dc936916d68f35ffe8afa4818834f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Louisville, Toledo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville | 60c | 17,714$10,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,714.95 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Toledo | 45c | 6,475$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Toledo | 40c | 4,825$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.2 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Toledo | 41c | 2,594$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.55 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Louisville | 74c | 2,038$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Louisville | 55c | 1,908$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.02 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Louisville | 55c | 1,779$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.63 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Toledo | 45c | 1,522$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.6 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Toledo | 39c | 1,437$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Toledo | 44c | 1,371$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.96 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Toledo | 45c | 1,227$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.85 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked Louisville | 52c | 961.86$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Toledo | 40c | 903.39$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Toledo | 50c | 895$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.5 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Louisville | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Toledo | 40c | 800$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Toledo | 40c | 565.41$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Toledo | 40c | 544.34$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.6 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Toledo | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Toledo | 42c | 405.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Toledo | 12c | 376.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +300%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville | 57c | 287.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toledo | 40c | 283.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Toledo | 40c | 280$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Toledo | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Toledo | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 8cpaid | +333.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Toledo | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Toledo | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 7cpaid | +341.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Louisville | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Louisville | 56c | 176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Toledo | 45c | 152$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Toledo | 56c | 124$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Toledo | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Toledo | 40c | 116.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Toledo | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Toledo | 38c | 103.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Toledo | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Toledo | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 8cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toledo | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Toledo | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Toledo | 46c | 98.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Toledo | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…29acbacked Toledo | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Toledo | 45c | 86.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7496backed Toledo | 38c | 71.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Toledo | 23c | 66.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Louisville | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-9.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville (-11.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-12.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-8.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. LouisvilleLouisville won
- Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.