College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea8b413bc414eff39ed7375e50a895f07560f49efd89a13cc0187364d80db72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Louisville, Toledo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Louisville | 54c | 27,393$14,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,900.06 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Toledo | 45c | 18,000$8,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,899.99 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Toledo | 46c | 9,648$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,210.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toledo | 48c | 8,589$4,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,467.05 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Louisville | 52c | 7,500$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Toledo | 46c | 7,123$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,846.4 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…949bbacked Louisville | 51c | 4,600$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Louisville | 58c | 4,069$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.05 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Toledo | 50c | 3,890$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Toledo | 44c | 1,720$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Louisville | 55c | 1,514$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.7 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo | 44c | 1,176$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.92 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…55f7backed Louisville | 52c | 952.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Louisville | 55c | 888.25$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.54 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Louisville | 50c | 645.09$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Toledo | 47c | 441.68$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.19 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Louisville | 50c | 390.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Louisville | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Louisville | 53c | 282.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Toledo | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Toledo | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Toledo | 47c | 170.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Louisville | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…cf11backed Louisville | 55c | 110.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Louisville | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Toledo | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -7.7wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Toledo | 46c | 97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Toledo | 47c | 93.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Toledo | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toledo | 40c | 75.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Toledo | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Toledo | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Toledo | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Toledo | 44c | 54.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Toledo | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Toledo | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Louisville | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Louisville | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…29acbacked Toledo | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Louisville | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…7052backed Louisville | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…bebdbacked Louisville | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Louisville | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Louisville | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Toledo | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed Louisville | 73c | 30.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Louisville | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…a34fbacked Louisville | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toledo | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…bb98backed Louisville | 55c | 27.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Toledo | 38c | 26.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Louisville | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Toledo | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Toledo | 48c | 22.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Louisville | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-8.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville (-11.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-12.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-9.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. LouisvilleLouisville won
- Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.