College Football · resolved market
O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e199fa9aeb2df3d1dca1732f6022678872f50d250f53cc004326f6b316de648
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 5,100$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.05 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 4,081$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.45 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 53c | 518.89$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…cc4cbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 52c | 450$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…69d3backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 48c | 195$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -7.7wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 30.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 44.5this page
- Spread: Louisville (-11.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-12.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-8.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-9.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. LouisvilleLouisville won
- Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.