College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb496f22b65aabdf0b629879c9ce7ca60b7e9b50f6d5b90cc6922e7bd844d40e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Louisville, Toledo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $754,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $892,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $754,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Louisville | 51c | 200,600$101,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,694.91 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Louisville | 51c | 164,200$83,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,982.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Toledo | 50c | 132,263$66,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,128.78 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Louisville | 50c | 123,024$61,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,387.78 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Toledo | 49c | 114,610$56,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,597.01 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Toledo | 49c | 103,116$51,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,105.74 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Toledo | 49c | 69,998$34,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,698.99 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Toledo | 49c | 63,835$31,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,535.15 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Toledo | 48c | 23,000$11,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,879.99 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Toledo | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Toledo | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,199.98 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Louisville | 52c | 14,528$7,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,594.77 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Toledo | 51c | 11,774$6,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,769.26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville | 50c | 10,735$5,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.79 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Louisville | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Toledo | 49c | 8,887$4,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,539.67 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Louisville | 50c | 7,979$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,015.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toledo | 49c | 6,075$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.43 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Toledo | 50c | 6,052$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,052.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Louisville | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Toledo | 49c | 4,105$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.44 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Toledo | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Toledo | 49c | 3,987$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Louisville | 50c | 3,604$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.14 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Louisville | 50c | 3,050$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed Toledo | 50c | 2,304$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Toledo | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Louisville | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Louisville | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toledo | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Louisville | 51c | 1,613$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.63 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Louisville | 52c | 1,245$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Toledo | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Toledo | 50c | 1,078$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.23 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Louisville | 50c | 850$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Louisville | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Louisville | 53c | 585.48$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Louisville | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Louisville | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +600.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Louisville | 52c | 502.22$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Toledo | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Louisville | 51c | 333.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.46 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Toledo | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Louisville | 51c | 219.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Louisville | 51c | 200.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Louisville | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toledo | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Louisville | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Toledo | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Louisville | 51c | 198.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Louisville | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Toledo | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Toledo | 51c | 167.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Toledo | 50c | 161.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae0…027cbacked Toledo | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Toledo | 50c | 159.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Louisville | 51c | 155.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c46…c4cebacked Louisville | 78c | 128.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Louisville | 51c | 113.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Toledo | 50c | 109.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Louisville | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Toledo | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Louisville | 52c | 96.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Louisville | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Toledo | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Toledo | 50c | 73.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3f0abacked Toledo | 49c | 61.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Toledo | 50c | 60.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Toledo | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…db87backed Toledo | 52c | 48.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0220backed Louisville | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Toledo | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed Toledo | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Toledo | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Louisville | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisville | 48c | 33.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Louisville | 50c | 31.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Louisville | 51c | 27.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a0…3efbbacked Louisville | 52c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…0a46backed Toledo | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Louisville | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-11.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville (-12.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-8.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Louisville (-9.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. LouisvilleLouisville won
- Toledo vs. Louisville: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.