Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153fa5a03cb7fb250042aaeabdb4a8de2c8af43b4b056d00e6497fcc4534798d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc736…7255backed Team Spirit | 61c | 9,024$5,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,529.31 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Team Spirit | 1c | 8,556$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Aurora | 39c | 6,107$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,726.83 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 36c | 4,037$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.15 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Aurora | 39c | 3,510$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.48 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 2,483$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.68 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Aurora | 41c | 1,608$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.27 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 52c | 1,282$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.23 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit | 66c | 1,118$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 50c | 1,004$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.73 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 64c | 782.03$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 44c | 746.65$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.65 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit | 56c | 612.42$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.96 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 538.98$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 535.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Team Spirit | 22c | 454.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Team Spirit | 66c | 362.03$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…8df9backed Aurora | 42c | 344.1$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Spirit | 24c | 333.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Spirit | 56c | 299.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…1c20backed Aurora | 44c | 293.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora | 44c | 290.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 40c | 191.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 52c | 189.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Spirit | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Team Spirit | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…3da2backed Team Spirit | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…f6fbbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 139$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 23c | 130.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Spirit | 63c | 109.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009e…7974backed Team Spirit | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Spirit | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit | 59c | 98.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 35c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed Aurora | 44c | 91.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Spirit | 56c | 90.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Team Spirit | 58c | 83.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…a2b3backed Team Spirit | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…133dbacked Team Spirit | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Team Spirit | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…a3bbbacked Team Spirit | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 47c | 64.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…0a99backed Aurora | 43c | 59.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Team Spirit | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Spirit | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…dbd2backed Aurora | 41c | 39.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Aurora | 70c | 36.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…8c74backed Team Spirit | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…f86ebacked Team Spirit | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…d220backed Team Spirit | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…69a8backed Team Spirit | 61c | 31.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…3fb3backed Team Spirit | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Spirit | 66c | 25.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…b1c1backed Team Spirit | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Team Spirit | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Spirit | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO5) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.