TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO5) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,874 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Spirit56c8,843$4,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,909.3719847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Aurora44c8,083$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,512.6314840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac70…2d8dbacked Aurora25c6,994$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,233.99245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora44c6,985$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.51,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Spirit65c5,814$3,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,77518053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Aurora70c5,565$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.027648.7%37 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora21c4,703$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.4785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked Team Spirit75c4,442$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.195149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit57c3,930$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.799844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora32c3,594$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.4654445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora45c3,540$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,94719148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Aurora25c3,259$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.7928062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Spirit58c3,093$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Aurora45c2,548$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.9133644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Team Spirit56c2,456$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.3316155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Spirit55c1,856$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.378854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Aurora43c1,830$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.3725444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Team Spirit37c1,376$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5087147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed Team Spirit70c1,272$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.533225%8 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora34c1,262$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.4847660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit32c1,260$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…6333backed Aurora40c1,245$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Team Spirit32c1,205$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.175740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Spirit57c1,050$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit54c1,029$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.651,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit80c1,005$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80026957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Aurora42c999.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.9946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit57c904.29$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.5173841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Team Spirit59c850.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9913157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b3…5dabbacked Aurora40c829.07$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd607…6ddcbacked Team Spirit5c800$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52de…e0f6backed Team Spirit5c800$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Aurora29c710.73$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.3151140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02e…8fb2backed Aurora44c671$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…be27backed Team Spirit42c645.46$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.092441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora48c623.97$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.4255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora58c621.62$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3623546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc847…262fbacked Team Spirit10c616.33$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.65714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b2…e009backed Team Spirit7c600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora44c574.08$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.492,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Aurora64c557.88$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.275234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d1f…b254backed Team Spirit77c555$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3f…d0a9backed Team Spirit71c526.25$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Team Spirit55c525.04$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.387645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Aurora78c521.91$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6712965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Team Spirit58c517.73$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41de…61d8backed Team Spirit76c516.27$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Aurora19c503.08$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.2817023.5%40 W · 130 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Aurora42c470.24$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.7429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f02…1395backed Aurora43c466$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8413…652dbacked Aurora44c458.57$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora30c430.6$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.3614142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Spirit56c408.12$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4991356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Spirit69c400$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27634443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Team Spirit7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora38c390.65$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.054949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora29c382.6$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.623050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora38c372$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.3820530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora22c371.71$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1438049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora40c363.34$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.3326661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit59c360.88$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Spirit56c356.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007944.3%35 W · 44 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf264…9e0fbacked Team Spirit49c351.77$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Aurora59c339.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4417251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4c2…1c20backed Aurora31c324.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.033321.2%7 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e83…ecabbacked Aurora29c306.4$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.594156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Aurora31c301.53$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1780742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora42c258.7$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3869835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora63c247.94$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Aurora42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.115250%76 W · 76 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Spirit54c222$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8880544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Aurora28c217.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0220339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Team Spirit75c215$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.255648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Spirit52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10412843.8%56 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed Team Spirit59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11820735.3%73 W · 134 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Aurora79c196$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.368261%50 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Spirit62c194.64$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7546664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd418…d11fbacked Team Spirit79c190.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Team Spirit60c188.77$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.267365.8%48 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit54c184.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7561057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf739…a435backed Team Spirit75c184$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddae…7d66backed Team Spirit34c183.32$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Team Spirit75c170$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick67cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Aurora44c159.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0913138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…55cabacked Team Spirit18c152.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Aurora39c150.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.086237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Spirit55c145.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Team Spirit52c145$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.759423.4%22 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Spirit23c140$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3216821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora48c122.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9445061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora49c119.44$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Team Spirit56c116.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6533743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Spirit73c113.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Aurora45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1123347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora46c110.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7714854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Spirit55c108.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6043647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Team Spirit56c106.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7123849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Team Spirit47c106.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011534.8%40 W · 75 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa340…409bbacked Team Spirit42c103.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.451353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa973…9b4dbacked Aurora58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.