TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Aurora, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e7f…6d97backed Aurora1c6,832$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit48c4,428$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.411,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac70…2d8dbacked Aurora48c4,000$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.349245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora49c2,534$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora67c2,391$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60048954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Spirit52c2,252$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.3817651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Team Spirit78c2,092$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.414949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Aurora51c1,923$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.516150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit46c1,855$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.471,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora56c1,177$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.9556848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit59c998.53$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.5326957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd660…8df9backed Team Spirit44c857.66$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Spirit46c770.85$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.9438049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit51c761.95$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.673841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Spirit48c620.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora49c597.51$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Team Spirit47c571.61$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.3221062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Aurora51c564.14$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7167853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Aurora60c515$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30916160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad7…d2fdbacked Team Spirit49c511.63$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Spirit51c507.38$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9355251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed Aurora49c431.71$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.543225%8 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Spirit48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20869835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Spirit40c373.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.5318053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora42c345$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.927548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Spirit32c341.5$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7723546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Aurora62c335.22$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9637745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c2…1c20backed Aurora49c308.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503321.2%7 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Aurora59c253.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…057dbacked Team Spirit8c228.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Spirit51c203.35$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6416248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora46c201.9$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.953757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Team Spirit39c199.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.914142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Spirit60c194.91$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.717944.3%35 W · 44 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Aurora41c189.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.380742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Team Spirit56c183.21$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.613467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b5…7b0bbacked Team Spirit67c173.13$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.584626.1%12 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-57.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Spirit51c169$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.814757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04cc…65ecbacked Team Spirit54c165.04$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5373…fc1abacked Aurora8c160$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora48c156$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8872154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit49c133.53$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.166662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Team Spirit53c131.05$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0533743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfe…5247backed Aurora44c113.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Aurora45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff2…3f58backed Team Spirit38c99.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.992227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8192…3da2backed Team Spirit50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba0f…be27backed Aurora48c88.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.482441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit33c82.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.511,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Team Spirit42c82.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.075234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Aurora62c82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8414965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Aurora62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507365.8%48 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Aurora33c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.750757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bf…8dc9backed Team Spirit61c78.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.66560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6698…e620backed Aurora43c77.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.272556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf82…6c06backed Team Spirit54c77.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55927.1%16 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x873d…97b5backed Aurora33c73.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e83…ecabbacked Aurora54c66.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.674156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed Aurora47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Spirit65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.120339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Team Spirit44c56.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4225255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc8…d266backed Aurora58c56.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.785844.8%26 W · 32 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x936f…7f75backed Aurora63c50.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.835350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9bd…4dacbacked Aurora48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…f86ebacked Team Spirit73c47.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked Team Spirit44c45.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6718154.7%99 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Team Spirit46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4819443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4f…5459backed Team Spirit54c42.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5911051.8%57 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x009e…7974backed Aurora55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed Aurora53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.217149.7%85 W · 86 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08b0…dd13backed Team Spirit60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.334252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f9…32bebacked Aurora48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157736.4%28 W · 49 L-11.8wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbf86…b1c1backed Team Spirit55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.279164.8%59 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Aurora58c25.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0711348.7%55 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8766…9a45backed Team Spirit73c24.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67fe…9859backed Aurora50c21.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b5…6d52backed Aurora78c13.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.334146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.