Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa80b07376ee14750d21592a125b5a70475fcc8808b7a5093151910cf6912b36a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Aurora, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 51c | 3,561$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.72 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 50c | 2,922$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.22 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 46c | 2,725$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.97 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 54c | 2,666$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.55 | 569 | 48.7%277 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit | 52c | 2,094$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.07 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Spirit | 48c | 2,087$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.28 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Aurora | 52c | 1,624$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.63 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 9c | 1,270$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Spirit | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 53c | 945.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.36 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit | 57c | 877.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.93 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Aurora | 50c | 584.66$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Spirit | 64c | 530.5$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Team Spirit | 38c | 500$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.08 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…1c20backed Aurora | 47c | 455.37$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Spirit | 58c | 346.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit | 47c | 280.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Aurora | 25c | 278.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Spirit | 58c | 236.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Team Spirit | 68c | 233.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 43c | 226.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Spirit | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Aurora | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009e…7974backed Team Spirit | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 188.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Aurora | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Aurora | 41c | 169.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Spirit | 60c | 166.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Team Spirit | 54c | 157.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Spirit | 47c | 144.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Aurora | 37c | 129.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Spirit | 47c | 127.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora | 61c | 119.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Aurora | 42c | 117.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Spirit | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Aurora | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…b357backed Team Spirit | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 809 | 42.6%345 W · 464 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6d97backed Aurora | 25c | 90.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6698…e620backed Team Spirit | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Aurora | 51c | 86.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Spirit | 38c | 65.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…6c06backed Team Spirit | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…0a99backed Aurora | 50c | 60.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…8dc9backed Team Spirit | 64c | 56.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Spirit | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Spirit | 49c | 54.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836a…4dfabacked Aurora | 51c | 50.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…fbecbacked Aurora | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 50c | 40.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…ecabbacked Aurora | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…d220backed Team Spirit | 61c | 36.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 861 | 51.3%442 W · 419 L | +31.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Spirit | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1e…66f1backed Aurora | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Aurora | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Spirit | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Team Spirit | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…b1c1backed Team Spirit | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b0…dd13backed Team Spirit | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Team Spirit | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO5) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.