Venezuela · resolved market
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef98be627ce2c54d73a9d5fe3520e6a10ad3eac96c82b8e05dd63da92324791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 28,305$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,471$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…0214backed Yes | 3c | 4,152$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,883$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 3,117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,116$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…658fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,070$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 3c | 2,896$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 5c | 2,858$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,693$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf248…72bfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,372$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,354$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,327$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…d3afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,954$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,678$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…b73dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,669$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,584$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,494$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,425$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…ed51backed Yes | 5c | 1,218$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,149$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,073$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…8645backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…69bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,019$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,014$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…1ca6backed Yes | 5c | 965.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 897.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 865.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 2c | 851.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 5c | 818.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 722.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 690$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 7c | 668.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 2c | 649.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 4c | 569.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…0f76backed Yes | 8c | 503.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…efbebacked Yes | 7c | 500.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206e…096abacked Yes | 5c | 398.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 6c | 317.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 5c | 300.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…95c1backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 15c | 276$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 15c | 146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 91.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?this page
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 10?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.