Venezuela · resolved market
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb21b5c6343c8e92a294d79d132fdf0273acb91ecc7694aca2cd364b737f1932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 3c | 3,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 2c | 3,009$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…a23abacked Yes | 1c | 2,924$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…8370backed Yes | 2c | 2,913$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,425$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 4c | 1,995$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,808$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…acbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,278$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…b73dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 4c | 1,145$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,026$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 986.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 799.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…86e0backed Yes | 3c | 773.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 611.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…4e57backed Yes | 3c | 598.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes | 2c | 423.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 27cpaid | +189%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 6c | 388.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 6c | 341.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 324.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 5c | 314.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 294.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 5c | 224.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 10c | 173.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…4273backed Yes | 28c | 70.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?this page
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 10?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.