Venezuela · resolved market
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eaceec1acd94e2aff36b52c64406b86678807e14d7a95ab843224e9a9be66b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf5…a7fbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…749abacked Yes | 0c | 14,666$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 6cpaid | +354.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 12,860$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…6c4dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 4c | 4,452$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…658fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,199$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…1518backed Yes | 3c | 1,936$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 4c | 1,230$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,074$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffa…4cc2backed Yes | 4c | 850$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…0f76backed Yes | 5c | 837.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 2c | 814.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…95c1backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…5e3cbacked Yes | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…cb10backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed Yes | 20c | 108.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…cd3dbacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3?this page
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 10?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.