Venezuela · resolved market
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645933543007f278d42257ecdecd10a127fd34b4fb2b31edfb0d2c6f856271c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 5c | 17,670$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 14,990$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448b…181abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…e711backed Yes | 3c | 5,173$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…ec8cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,120$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…8370backed Yes | 3c | 3,146$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…5692backed Yes | 1c | 2,854$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,690$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,601$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…a23abacked Yes | 1c | 2,462$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…13bebacked Yes | 2c | 2,316$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…a73ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,314$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,294$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 3c | 2,165$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 4c | 2,140$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,066$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,864$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,610$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,556$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 1c | 1,499$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…9cfbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,373$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…11dbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,323$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…7599backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,167$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 1,083$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…3681backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…da81backed Yes | 1c | 1,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Yes | 3c | 949.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…64dfbacked Yes | 3c | 945.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 909.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 902.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 857.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 777.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 755.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 723.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 585.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 3c | 525.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 12c | 503$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…01e2backed Yes | 3c | 499.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…b5b0backed Yes | 4c | 484.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…1db1backed Yes | 4c | 451.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +212.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…c37dbacked Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 361.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…1002backed Yes | 4c | 333.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed Yes | 17c | 325.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0292…c9a5backed Yes | 3c | 311.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 27cpaid | +189%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 6c | 297.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…fe45backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 11c | 261$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 4c | 251.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 236.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…7448backed Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…c345backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6070…04cbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed Yes | 9c | 166.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…28b8backed Yes | 12c | 147.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3b…b567backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…207ebacked No | 80c | 107.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?this page
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 10?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.