Venezuela · resolved market
Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb37c34322412194f10f775fd28c198c9afe81c2bbac56b3ef9ecd7fb7d6e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,674$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…c85fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,085$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,085$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…7a35backed Yes | 2c | 1,964$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972d…e7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,295$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…5267backed Yes | 7c | 1,099$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 954.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…6c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 801.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 733.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 729.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 4c | 609.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 7c | 582.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 503.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 4c | 502.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 11cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…fe45backed Yes | 5c | 435.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 4c | 395.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 381.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 7c | 368.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…376abacked Yes | 5c | 361.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…efbebacked Yes | 6c | 340.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 276.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 245.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 8c | 235$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 14c | 85.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…c333backed No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.