TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Texans: O/U 44.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c113,052$55,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,260.071,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under52c94,768$48,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,888.7431240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over48c46,337$22,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,240.3886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Under51c40,815$20,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,999.337951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Over48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9623937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Under51c19,000$9,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,31020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over49c17,149$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.9747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under52c15,600$8,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,48816860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Over48c14,216$6,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,823.830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Under51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under51c6,666$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.3424056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Under51c6,418$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.591450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.9924957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Under52c5,363$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.1847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over49c2,755$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.1125744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…991bbacked Over49c2,400$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17690%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1fe3…f118backed Under52c2,349$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.74650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+58.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Over49c2,083$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.441540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd804…821cbacked Over49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c1,670$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Under52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7206651.5%34 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4809444.7%42 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48065048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under53c942.57$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.5183447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f8…5897backed Under52c853.45$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.457448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Under52c682.69$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.694351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under52c673.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.087661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Over49c614$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8612151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2351,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Over49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2454650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c496.23$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34b7…be11backed Over50c416$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa1…5cb4backed Under52c397$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Under77c381$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.316165.6%40 W · 21 L+7.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over22c370$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.152050%10 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Under51c347.13$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.092740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Under54c311$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.062766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1414146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15019459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Over55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4702…457fbacked Under52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1443542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Under53c299.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14120650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…1bd6backed Over50c271$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db9…42babacked Over47c260$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36a…917ebacked Under52c257$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…35a4backed Over47c253$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc7…855dbacked Under55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5941…ba47backed Over50c239$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12a4…e31ebacked Over50c234$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d6…e477backed Over50c233$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562d…2c7bbacked Under52c228$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x836e…595cbacked Over50c225$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under48c225$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0531543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1006…d954backed Over50c225$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bc…201fbacked Under52c213$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01d…5a95backed Over47c209$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f40…2c68backed Under52c209$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6178…aacebacked Under52c208$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9545…0092backed Under52c207$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e32…c37abacked Over50c207$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc43e…9edfbacked Under55c206$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a8…57d5backed Over49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Over49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Under52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9615851.9%82 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x527d…ceb1backed Under52c197$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0879…8b88backed Over47c196$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf90…b721backed Over50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ac…a025backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2068…548fbacked Over50c189$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c7…6811backed Over50c188$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9483…8630backed Under52c187$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8219651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3096…1636backed Under53c179.25$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.252254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Over59c178.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5218044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…1798backed Under52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf20…4a18backed Under52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe301…c35bbacked Under52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19fb…8a80backed Over50c172$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b72…34e7backed Over50c165$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d27…4df7backed Under55c165$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a24…804abacked Over50c165$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6161…677abacked Over49c162$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea9…91d9backed Over50c161$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8643…5914backed Under52c161$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7c…6f99backed Over49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e75…fee1backed Under52c156$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ceb…e96ebacked Under52c155$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0f…2fb1backed Under52c152$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8034…5b5dbacked Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbecd…9df4backed Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7214347.6%68 W · 75 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe2…d4e7backed Under55c149$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb82f…f69abacked Under55c148$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Under51c144.92$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.913661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e3aebacked Over50c143$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb198…cd91backed Over50c143$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over47c138.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2253253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd937…9192backed Under52c134$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.