TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Bills, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,523,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,663,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,523,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2643…39aebacked Texans56c1,258,082$710,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547,702.632065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdff8…aaaebacked Bills45c1,047,842$468,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468,977.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Texans55c249,795$137,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,407.9517454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Bills42c236,751$99,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,435.6217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bills44c125,000$55,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,999.9727454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Texans54c100,000$54,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,0005855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Bills42c80,000$33,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,6006248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Bills43c78,356$33,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,690.776645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills44c60,205$26,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,698.0847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Bills44c35,000$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,400.0113843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Bills44c32,500$14,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,30018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills43c30,429$12,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,952.271,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bills41c26,279$10,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,773.4475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills43c23,989$10,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,195.1983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Bills44c21,805$9,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,698.436639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bills43c20,686$8,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,877.1537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bills51c20,506$10,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,463.8660049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Bills48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.998946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Texans50c17,298$8,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,728.4686547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…991bbacked Bills41c16,400$6,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,70290%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texans52c16,280$8,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,814.4231240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Texans53c13,997$7,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,551.9119553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Texans59c13,546$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,546.45658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bills43c12,498$5,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.4164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bills47c10,050$4,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,718.4823937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Bills43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Texans55c9,999$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.5524056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Bills44c9,333$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,106.372941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Texans58c8,767$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,682.245457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Texans56c8,523$4,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.1253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd804…821cbacked Bills44c6,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa7…adbfbacked Texans56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.142240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bills42c5,272$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.2812944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Bills44c4,895$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.795139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Texans48c4,626$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.5473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bills43c4,159$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.3714641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills43c3,169$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.191,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Texans53c3,099$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.330043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Bills43c3,034$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.774143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills42c2,932$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Bills53c2,535$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.477255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Texans53c2,421$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.326149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Texans56c2,268$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.865358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Texans56c2,201$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.371040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e25…043ebacked Texans56c2,102$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.772060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Bills45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Bills47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9402245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Bills45c2,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8906045%27 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Texans57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86013935.3%49 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bills44c1,882$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.7565048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bills42c1,787$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.4720039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Texans54c1,580$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.856852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f06…e795backed Texans58c1,540$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x867a…1bb1backed Bills42c1,429$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Texans54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f89…6d7ebacked Bills46c1,294$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Texans58c1,293$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.116737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Bills43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012843%55 W · 73 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Bills45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Bills46c1,111$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51111156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bills41c1,085$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.7551352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f8…5897backed Texans61c1,016$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.537448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Texans52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Texans50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Texans52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48014035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cc6…dfe9backed Bills46c978.26$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Texans56c931.38$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.914555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Texans55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.092544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Bills44c909.09$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Texans55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.093560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Texans74c908.01$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.837044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Texans69c825.41$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.3468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bills44c790$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.683447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Bills23c700$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0108…a80fbacked Bills46c672$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Bills46c653$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3812151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Texans58c634.69$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6929059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7dc…3cc7backed Texans56c625$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Bills49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2946841.2%28 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bills42c600$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.553253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bills42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25227633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Texans52c583.02$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.028536.5%31 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Texans57c563.35$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.245030%15 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Texans52c555$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.46453.1%34 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed Bills42c535.71$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258736.8%32 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Texans56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.714463.6%28 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e61…adf9backed Bills48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Texans55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2256162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21e9…c1b0backed Bills46c492$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbfe…64eebacked Texans55c471$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e6…afb9backed Bills46c461$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Texans57c454.39$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.3914252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x915d…0d5abacked Bills46c452$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed Bills43c451.16$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1941752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Texans55c450$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.513845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d8…cea1backed Texans55c447$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Texans51c445.66$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3717348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Bills46c436.96$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20115252%79 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5c…aad0backed Bills46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002564%16 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb968…c7c2backed Bills46c423$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.