NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51641b3490aa26bad63e92c500dfd71035f0023dd16a4a6bdf2b0250bcf9253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Bills, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Texans | 50c | 22,620$11,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 48c | 16,091$7,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400.65 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Bills | 52c | 14,275$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400.19 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Bills | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bills | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 52c | 4,555$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.92 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Texans | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bills | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Texans | 44c | 1,253$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.68 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bills | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Bills | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Bills | 50c | 620$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Texans | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Bills | 52c | 515.1$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Bills | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Texans | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Bills | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…081bbacked Bills | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 51c | 139.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…14bbbacked Bills | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texans | 46c | 58.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Bills | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Bills | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Texans | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Texans | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…cb0fbacked Bills | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5)Texans won
- Bills vs. TexansTexans won
- Bills vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Bills vs. Texans: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Bills vs. Texans: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Bills vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Bills vs. Texans: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Texans won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.