NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Texans: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2202e49e764d51d146ce4b35228e5f02eebce8928340e52d33f3c91599a0c4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Bills, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Texans | 39c | 8,888$3,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,455.01 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Bills | 61c | 8,836$5,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,423.01 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texans | 39c | 467.71$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.77 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Bills | 60c | 438.68$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Bills | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Texans | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Texans | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Bills | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Texans | 18c | 111.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texans | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Bills | 62c | 89.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10dd…4831backed Bills | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Bills | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Texans: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5)Texans won
- Bills vs. TexansTexans won
- Bills vs. Texans: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Bills vs. Texans: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Bills vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Bills vs. Texans: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Texans won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Texans won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.