TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Bills, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Texans50c69,279$34,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,443.5886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bills49c65,374$32,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,151.5427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans51c50,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,50011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Bills49c30,500$14,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,94518156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Bills49c30,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,7004134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Bills49c16,723$8,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,194.246639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Bills49c11,245$5,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,510.272941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Texans52c10,094$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,845.278164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Texans50c9,251$4,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,625.3124957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Texans51c7,843$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.071450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Bills49c7,500$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,67514450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bills53c5,300$2,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80918140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bills48c3,199$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.312744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Texans52c3,111$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.2834349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Texans50c3,049$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.2930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Texans52c2,370$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.5217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Bills49c2,200$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0785246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Texans52c2,048$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.084351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Bills49c2,020$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Bills49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.993839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Bills50c1,802$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Bills50c1,701$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8503138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x685a…0260backed Texans52c1,635$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae5…b896backed Bills50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea2…d255backed Bills50c1,450$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Texans51c1,296$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.1112343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcde5…32b5backed Bills48c1,240$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bills52c1,127$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59012550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Texans52c1,042$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.315754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Texans54c1,027$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.6911759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bills50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2054…533ebacked Bills50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Texans48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52014035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Texans52c962.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.8911740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Bills53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Texans48c876.54$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.851352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bills49c805$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.4514366.4%95 W · 48 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Bills52c749.99$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39018744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked Bills50c742$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37120143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texans51c735.67$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.841,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Texans47c645.9$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.3383447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Bills50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Texans52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.926755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Bills50c546.57$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.296841.2%28 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills51c478$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.781,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bills50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Bills48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19226857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Bills50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Bills50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Texans52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19220949.8%104 W · 105 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Texans51c394$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0616346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Bills50c394$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19711545.2%52 W · 63 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Bills50c350$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757041.4%29 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbeb3…2c5fbacked Texans48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Texans51c286$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1430442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Bills53c284.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cf2…6abdbacked Texans48c283$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149d…a1d5backed Texans48c272$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…c659backed Bills53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1447…3971backed Texans49c247$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2408…83e5backed Texans49c231$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Texans52c211.62$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5859453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5985…a3c3backed Bills53c209$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa215…088abacked Bills49c205$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills52c204$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Bills53c201.09$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5822745.4%103 W · 124 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Texans51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Bills49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9819948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Texans48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10413347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75a0…be02backed Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003464.7%22 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c0f…80ffbacked Bills53c192$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2203…e5a1backed Texans54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.192454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8a…d37ebacked Bills53c185$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Bills49c183.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.59652.1%50 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x615f…01e4backed Bills52c182$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0b…2ca0backed Texans48c176$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8205…42c7backed Texans48c172$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97be…adecbacked Texans48c172$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Texans50c170.2$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.153253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbfe…64eebacked Bills52c161$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bills53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21f…2fd0backed Bills53c147$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebcc…705bbacked Bills53c141$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Bills50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701580%12 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xadf1…afedbacked Bills53c139$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e0d…081bbacked Bills50c134$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f93…bbdebacked Bills52c129$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…0f56backed Bills53c118$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bills48c110.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9836341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x018d…09e3backed Bills51c105.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9320…49c6backed Bills50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Texans51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa817…8d88backed Bills50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b5…1d1dbacked Bills50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Bills50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Texans49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Texans48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527750.6%39 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Texans56c97.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Texans51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4319844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.