TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Texans: O/U 43.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under47c39,990$18,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,194.4824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Under47c37,735$17,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,999.557951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c30,045$15,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,906.621,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over53c29,164$15,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,458.5647348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under49c23,029$11,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,814.4131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over53c22,569$11,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,930.9744652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over52c15,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8006451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Over50c14,968$7,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4848946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c14,000$7,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,089.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,30024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Over53c7,448$3,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,947.253135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over49c6,342$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.4186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Under48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1202740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under51c5,618$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,752.6524056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Over52c5,149$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,677.4830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under48c4,500$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Under50c3,995$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under46c3,165$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.137350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over52c2,943$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.3621254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Under49c2,520$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.2114349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Under47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Under49c2,500$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.7718044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Under47c2,200$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1665246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under46c2,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Under52c1,951$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.5112039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c1,841$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.2175852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under49c1,698$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.0883447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Over54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8102050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over53c1,334$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.9725744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Under48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52013145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over49c1,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48539242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Over53c950$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.513641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35722446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under49c672.78$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.1214154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Over53c630.09$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.958461.9%52 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Over55c618.18$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34021454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Over51c586.27$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2992740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over52c585.7$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.7754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under47c565.08$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.9865048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over53c512$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8620238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Under49c510.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.26647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under49c472.56$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.0120443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb5…7a65backed Under49c409$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ce…6b46backed Over50c384$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Over53c382.96$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9719948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Under48c357$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.642050%10 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.513752.6%72 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15623647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over52c249$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5caa…5376backed Over52c239$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8af…8321backed Under49c226$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…c657backed Under49c216$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3096…1636backed Under49c212.24$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.242254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9907…f0e6backed Over51c201$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1c…a55abacked Under50c201$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03a9…9b52backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4899…9db1backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under47c199.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10631540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under50c196$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf469…97fbbacked Over52c196$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over53c195$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.359443.6%41 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e78…3f18backed Over51c194$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over52c184.82$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1131450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8148…5f30backed Over51c171$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3641…2864backed Over52c170$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc72d…4fc6backed Under50c164$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Over55c163.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under16c160$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.819124.6%47 W · 144 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over39c159.02$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40cd…447ebacked Under61c159.02$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.021050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9434…07efbacked Over52c159$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Over52c156.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe354…8a38backed Under50c156$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786756.7%38 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Under49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51580%12 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd9ca…fa25backed Under50c142$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Under48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over54c118.54$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Over79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.387061.4%43 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5324243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5510453.8%56 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.048950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf65…304bbacked Over51c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Over52c96.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Under49c95.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.921662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6733…de17backed Over52c87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2440%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011458.8%67 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under16c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Under49c67.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.671258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over48c61.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7512744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.