TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Bills, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$327,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Bills56c95,493$53,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,686.1147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Texans44c58,390$25,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,530.8427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills60c49,870$29,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,766.6853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills60c33,183$19,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,812.0647348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Texans42c32,183$13,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,794.1911146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans42c23,041$9,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,363.5311168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Texans41c20,500$8,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,094.975855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Texans40c19,776$7,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,865.5712144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Texans43c15,745$6,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,908.546240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texans41c14,764$5,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,771.475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Texans52c12,498$6,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,962.6173651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4b…7b18backed Texans41c12,200$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,198333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6c…853cbacked Bills59c12,200$7,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,198333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Texans43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.9917348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bills54c8,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Texans44c6,209$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.3217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Bills58c4,310$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Bills56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2401435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Texans42c3,505$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Texans44c3,500$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Texans43c2,999$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.8256852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Texans41c2,729$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.3283447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Bills58c2,530$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.468351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…991bbacked Bills34c2,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85090%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4e61…adf9backed Bills57c2,400$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3751258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Texans43c2,165$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.4839754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64ff…8217backed Bills57c2,116$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2061040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Bills57c2,020$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.23056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Texans41c2,010$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.764143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Texans42c1,945$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.9465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Texans40c1,812$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.219651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Texans42c1,793$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.786645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Texans45c1,700$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93515044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Texans43c1,596$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.9853253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Bills39c1,361$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.793441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Texans44c1,360$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.3613935.3%49 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Bills57c1,279$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.034641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bills51c1,152$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.2131543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills56c1,074$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.791,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Bills58c1,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60016344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc7…cf77backed Bills56c1,027$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5758144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Bills58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58012249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texans41c996$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.611,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Texans45c912.22$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.726540%26 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Bills57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004835.4%17 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6706…ed03backed Texans44c857$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Bills59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008557.6%49 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Texans44c795.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.969657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Bills19c780$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bills52c690$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4168446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Texans40c599.63$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.5927633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Texans40c591$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.32050%10 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed Bills43c517.32$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22012250%61 W · 61 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bills60c502.7$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Bills58c499.76$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8117248.3%83 W · 89 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2204…84cebacked Texans44c460$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fc…87cdbacked Texans44c460$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf8f…542bbacked Texans44c453$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9452…34ddbacked Texans42c450$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfda…07ecbacked Texans44c444$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5519…a2cdbacked Texans42c431$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c4b…94c0backed Texans44c426$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.564100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab7f…9448backed Texans44c426$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0f…80ffbacked Bills58c423$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x915d…0d5abacked Bills58c413$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4819…a30ebacked Bills58c411$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f3e…1819backed Bills58c368$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e9…5521backed Bills56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f4…3984backed Bills58c351$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46bf…ed13backed Texans44c339$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texans72c330$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.760049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b17…d5a3backed Bills55c286.84$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.762642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ee…1447backed Bills58c282$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb7…834abacked Bills58c272$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa927…aad6backed Bills60c270$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32da…b112backed Bills57c261.7$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503974.4%29 W · 10 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8034…5b5dbacked Texans44c259$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Texans43c254.15$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9836341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Texans40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15055345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bc…201fbacked Bills58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0d…081bbacked Bills25c247.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…8ed4backed Bills58c247$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9531…a759backed Bills60c245$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf1…afedbacked Bills58c244$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb56b…8e16backed Bills58c243$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12a4…e31ebacked Texans44c241$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…35a4backed Texans42c240$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdd…fa79backed Texans44c238$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…aa0ebacked Bills58c236$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fb4…19bbbacked Texans44c235$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b3…d2c2backed Texans44c234$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Texans43c233$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8115746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…af5ebacked Texans44c231$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53aa…e11dbacked Texans44c226$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf219…2771backed Bills58c225$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19f9…adc0backed Bills58c221$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf318…317fbacked Texans44c221$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe919…cd6fbacked Texans42c220$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x214d…8911backed Bills58c217.65$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.68446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe18c…e907backed Bills58c212$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.