NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48427428a7d6a6d630fbe05cc4a608b626454cfd0e0880cf78d87fb98ca4b078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Under | 55c | 33,000$18,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,850 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 21,353$9,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,608.94 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Under | 55c | 7,452$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,384.17 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…1449backed Over | 47c | 7,363$3,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,460.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 6,635$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450.73 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 45c | 5,539$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.54 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 3,685$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Over | 45c | 2,648$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 55c | 2,555$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.75 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 1,742$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Over | 47c | 1,581$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Over | 47c | 1,575$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.25 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 47c | 1,574$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,574$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 55c | 1,335$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.91 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 45c | 1,326$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.51 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 48c | 1,071$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over | 47c | 1,051$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 1,045$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.14 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 14c | 1,004$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 53c | 738.3$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 28c | 680$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 56c | 607.14$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 47c | 594.52$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 534.74$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.43 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 42c | 523.61$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.52 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 514$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 55c | 357.02$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 292.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Under | 54c | 225$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 282 | 45.4%128 W · 154 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 76c | 159.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 46c | 131.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 121.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Under | 59c | 120.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 75c | 119$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 104.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 85.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Under | 66c | 76.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 45c | 75.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 213 | 57.7%123 W · 90 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 129 | 61.2%79 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Under | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 32c | 68.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 62.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 46c | 60.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 51.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…74e0backed Under | 54c | 45.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…d790backed Over | 65c | 42.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Over | 46c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…07f7backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…6c5ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 67c | 39.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…8390backed Under | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…ce8abacked Over | 65c | 34.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…8de0backed Under | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Under | 55c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…cf78backed Over | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Caleb Martin: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Caleb Martin: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.