TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Caleb Martin: Points O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,432 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No55c1,550$858 inWon+$692.261,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Yes5c835.31$41 inLost-$412157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Yes44c706.61$308 inLost-$308.1428554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e48…6fd3backed Yes5c504$25 inLost-$25.24544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No62c499.99$310 inWon+$19026069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…fab1backed Yes5c421.68$20 inLost-$19.68850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes46c420$192 inLost-$19243543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcebf…9b73backed Yes38c389.47$148 inLost-$148333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…b922backed Yes5c200.61$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb9…f4e6backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes46c200$92 inLost-$9239552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6133…9613backed Yes43c190$81 inLost-$80.88850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f0…1a38backed Yes45c134.77$61 inLost-$60.651656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf926…fb21backed Yes38c100$38 inLost-$382433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No57c90$52 inWon+$38.421672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x62e2…1f89backed Yes44c75.33$33 inLost-$33.163259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No57c39.99$23 inWon+$1760267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No56c25$14 inWon+$1145657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No59c18$11 inWon+$7.3822774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.