NBA · resolved market
Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f7f9e2c5818a3419a944870aa75c6678cbce3b938109609f89f9e4f752964e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 57c | 2,245$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.3 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Yes | 43c | 710$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.1 | 285 | 54%154 W · 131 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…ec95backed Yes | 39c | 519.72$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed Yes | 46c | 328.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 47c | 324.39$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.27 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed No | 62c | 263.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…fab1backed Yes | 38c | 260.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…1a5cbacked No | 48c | 189.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed No | 46c | 157.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…2e6dbacked Yes | 48c | 152.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 42c | 138.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…7ee1backed No | 49c | 134.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9b73backed Yes | 43c | 105.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 44c | 99.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 48c | 98.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Yes | 43c | 95.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked No | 49c | 80.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…4271backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 55c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed No | 48c | 35.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 54c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Caleb Martin: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Caleb Martin: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.