NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8cc537136df3e6cb736ea5295be784e1b096f0c8a38b0e13005e5145b28bf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b94…44b1backed Under | 48c | 6,652$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…604abacked Over | 58c | 5,757$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311.97 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +14.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 46c | 5,015$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.36 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 4,444$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 2,820$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.63 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 2,668$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.26 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…5abebacked Over | 52c | 2,487$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2192…dc48backed Over | 52c | 2,376$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…71c9backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 25c | 1,950$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3402backed Over | 52c | 1,789$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 1,507$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.61 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 48c | 1,173$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.89 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,159$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 977.43$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 51c | 891.58$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.71 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Over | 61c | 599.92$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.95 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Over | 63c | 524.1$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.82 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Under | 46c | 504.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.75 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…e04fbacked Under | 48c | 463.85$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 462.62$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 51c | 326$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.26 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Under | 52c | 323.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 293.73$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 262.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 58c | 262$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 255.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 51c | 247.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 222.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6133…9613backed Under | 50c | 205$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 201.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 176.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…8e33backed Over | 79c | 157.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Under | 51c | 154.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 51c | 116.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 105.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Over | 62c | 100.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 61c | 99.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Over | 53c | 94.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Under | 50c | 82.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 39c | 71.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Under | 39c | 68.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Over | 54c | 63.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 53c | 58.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 49c | 58.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 42c | 53.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 54c | 52.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 55c | 51.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 51.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed Under | 46c | 50.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 56c | 46.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…c780backed Over | 62c | 40.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…1ac4backed Under | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Under | 47c | 35.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed Under | 39c | 34.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Under | 39c | 31.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 42c | 30.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed Over | 54c | 29.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -79%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 42c | 27.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 55c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 54c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…c09fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Caleb Martin: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Caleb Martin: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.