NBA · resolved market
P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3276e575803fe7b8b1b5e0cdea0413f2866f566d63366b1692b9506a5773a90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 48c | 1,290$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.22 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Yes | 50c | 607.92$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.8 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Yes | 48c | 395.58$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 208.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed No | 52c | 204.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed No | 52c | 191.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 55c | 182.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…7ee1backed No | 55c | 164.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 50c | 160.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Yes | 52c | 118.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked No | 50c | 78.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 51c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 46c | 37.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 51c | 33.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 50c | 26.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Caleb Martin: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Caleb Martin: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.