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NBA · resolved market

Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,484 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No55c1,334$739 inLost-$738.791,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7885…e04fbacked Yes43c809.78$351 inWon+$459.112268.2%15 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+47.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No56c500$280 inLost-$28026069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes44c488.08$217 inWon+$270.91,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes44c386.36$170 inWon+$216.3639552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No46c284.37$131 inLost-$130.815,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No56c254.24$143 inLost-$143.2190863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf926…fb21backed Yes48c220$106 inWon+$114.42433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e4a…1a5cbacked No48c177.71$85 inLost-$856040%24 W · 36 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x60f0…1a38backed Yes48c138$66 inWon+$71.661656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d0…a8d5backed Yes38c137.66$53 inWon+$84.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No55c100$55 inLost-$54.945657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No59c60$35 inLost-$35.421672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x62e2…1f89backed Yes58c56.32$32 inWon+$23.873259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes53c51.2$27 inWon+$24.0690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Yes44c50.11$22 inWon+$28.069657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No56c50$28 inLost-$28.2595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed No48c44.85$22 inLost-$21.7340849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No57c40$23 inLost-$22.860267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Yes44c40$18 inWon+$22.416951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e5…292fbacked Yes44c39.89$18 inWon+$22.343847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Yes48c32$15 inWon+$16.646750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No43c27.39$12 inLost-$11.651,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No39c25.97$10 inLost-$10.131,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No51c24$12 inLost-$12.2471245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No56c18$10 inLost-$10.0822774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.