NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c6a057c0a20edb435adbdaef9a3b78cace9862699438e0978a74eaf6c3f6825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Under | 57c | 2,800$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,701$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.44 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 733$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 42c | 469.86$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 43c | 430$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.9 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 59c | 297$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 59c | 210$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Under | 60c | 196.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 40c | 154.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 37c | 152$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 44c | 140.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 111.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 100.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 49c | 80.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 60c | 78.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 65.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed Under | 51c | 42.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 43c | 36.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…e6b8backed Over | 44c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…e5a1backed Over | 44c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-2.5)Steelers won
- Bills vs. SteelersBills won
- Bills vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.