TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Steelers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$431,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$454,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Steelers54c216,998$116,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,967.8317041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills46c139,585$64,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,301.0347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Bills47c101,436$47,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,586.933268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Steelers53c48,740$25,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,729.786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills46c32,317$14,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,378.7653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Steelers52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,599.995152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bills45c11,328$5,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,230.2511168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3451…49a5backed Bills46c11,213$5,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,055.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bills45c11,092$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,100.8324056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Steelers55c11,000$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0505756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Bills48c10,500$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,459.998946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Steelers52c9,248$4,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,832.4573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Steelers55c7,351$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,016.8414641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Bills46c6,657$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,594.648856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…adbfbacked Bills47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1802240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Steelers54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bills45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Steelers53c4,832$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.6934349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Steelers54c4,657$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.787657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers55c4,600$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,53051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bills45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.4511255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bills48c3,390$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.0564747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc046…cf3abacked Bills46c3,261$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.87450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Steelers53c3,218$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.781,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Steelers53c2,673$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.8714154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Bills47c2,575$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.754641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Steelers52c2,557$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.7944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Steelers53c2,340$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.6656852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Bills46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.9112152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bills46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Bills49c1,962$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.5412039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Steelers50c1,820$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.0675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Bills40c1,300$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.53056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bills48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Steelers54c999.99$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53565048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Steelers54c926$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0414035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Steelers52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41623647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers53c778$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.341,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Bills47c755.72$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.537751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Steelers54c749.97$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.9818744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bills48c736.78$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.1332050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Steelers56c726.06$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40311740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cc5…5fcbbacked Bills46c651.72$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.936547.7%31 W · 34 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c77…6282backed Steelers55c641.93$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Bills46c617.26$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.2618650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Bills48c612.77$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.7711545.2%52 W · 63 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Steelers53c542.71$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2683447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Bills46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27010142.6%43 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5f…39c7backed Bills48c486.33$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.035350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec30…f1aabacked Bills47c478.72$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.72771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc7…cf77backed Steelers54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa397…ba36backed Bills46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.781968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Bills47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.539536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Bills47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5316351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Bills44c366.57$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.283839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Bills45c358.69$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.195939%23 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a12…c0d6backed Steelers54c340$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Bills46c304.35$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3516048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Steelers55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…dc15backed Steelers54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1625950.8%30 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Steelers53c299.93$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9626648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Bills46c283$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6323024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Bills44c277.39$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.598540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Bills47c268.74$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4311154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Bills46c260.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8717548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf5…6638backed Bills39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4111637.9%44 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Bills48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13020650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4702…457fbacked Steelers55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.53542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37a7…a42bbacked Bills46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.396243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Bills46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.393046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Steelers54c217.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.395261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Bills49c216$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1625956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Steelers54c205$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.714949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Bills49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10227835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Steelers54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Steelers55c196.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6255345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Steelers53c192.11$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8253253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb3…05e5backed Bills46c182.61$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.618733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Steelers56c179.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Steelers56c179.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…16d4backed Steelers56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills46c177$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Steelers55c163.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Bills47c159.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.565135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Bills49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.520632%66 W · 140 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Steelers22c145$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.920757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb269…c448backed Steelers55c136.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca47…3ef4backed Steelers55c135$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.251747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Steelers54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.259453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Bills46c126.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.091656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed Bills46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.75158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe43b…f955backed Bills46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.74748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf581…0892backed Bills46c107.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.771457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Bills48c107$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.642343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Steelers55c100.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557741.6%32 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x397d…794fbacked Bills47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537147.9%34 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x575b…14f0backed Bills47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bills46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5416045%72 W · 88 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Bills46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549248.9%45 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Steelers55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-81.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.