NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x746eff8da22347b7213da062514f9e386fef46713d43429168078f3092b008c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 49c | 28,439$13,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,502.06 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 24,770$12,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,629.68 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 50c | 5,384$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 5,084$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,542 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,039$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.22 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 49c | 3,719$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.52 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 2,156$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.56 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Over | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 711.02$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.73 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Over | 51c | 467.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 51c | 275$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 51c | 140.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Under | 51c | 108.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a3…6482backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-2.5)Steelers won
- Bills vs. SteelersBills won
- Bills vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.