NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29fbb9e31d502c13a9cefc99424ae7b5c27acbe52631af948d0deee63b7e1dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 59,219$29,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,609.44 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 50c | 52,755$26,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,375.75 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Over | 50c | 42,000$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,000 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 32,200$16,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,976.87 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 52c | 25,237$13,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,113.56 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Over | 48c | 24,143$11,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,588.66 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Over | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 53c | 8,971$4,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.17 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Under | 50c | 7,100$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 47c | 6,300$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 54c | 4,207$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.2 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 49c | 3,608$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.24 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 2,250$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 50c | 1,632$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.84 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 1,011$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.2 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 53c | 984.91$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.91 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Over | 47c | 934.04$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Over | 48c | 527$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Under | 53c | 499.96$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 396.21$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.36 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 309$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Over | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Over | 50c | 203.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…74aebacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 51c | 175$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 54c | 148$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 130.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 52c | 126.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…5fd6backed Over | 49c | 120.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 117.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…67cdbacked Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 51c | 95.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…74e3backed Over | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 49c | 40.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 38.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…6aeabacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…4ba4backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-2.5)Steelers won
- Bills vs. SteelersBills won
- Bills vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.