NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbcc10bed3b9d7bcdded37b1fd2700d40b5f209a2034c00c496ab893335e1ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Pistons, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Pistons | 44c | 113,000$49,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,719.99 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Celtics | 56c | 103,413$57,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,501.87 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 56c | 7,991$4,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,524.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 49c | 1,021$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 47c | 1,021$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…854cbacked Celtics | 61c | 1,019$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.01 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Celtics | 56c | 946.5$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.46 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…175fbacked Celtics | 54c | 500.91$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Pistons | 28c | 443.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Celtics | 60c | 266.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pistons | 44c | 247.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Celtics | 57c | 242.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…9e22backed Pistons | 46c | 213.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f1…6109backed Pistons | 48c | 209.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Celtics | 50c | 207$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…aeccbacked Celtics | 67c | 193.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Celtics | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Celtics | 57c | 168.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 52c | 146.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Celtics | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Pistons | 43c | 132.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Pistons | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons | 40c | 123.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Celtics | 57c | 116.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Celtics | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 324 | 55.9%181 W · 143 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Celtics | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons | 33c | 90.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Pistons | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Pistons | 44c | 79.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Celtics | 72c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Pistons | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Celtics | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Pistons | 40c | 64.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Celtics | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Pistons | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Pistons | 65c | 56.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Celtics | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Celtics | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Celtics | 56c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Celtics | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Pistons | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Celtics | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Celtics | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pistons | 46c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…d337backed Pistons | 61c | 37.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Celtics | 52c | 37.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Celtics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Pistons | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Celtics | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Pistons | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…a628backed Celtics | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Celtics | 57c | 25.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Celtics | 55c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Celtics | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pistons | 48c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…3751backed Celtics | 57c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Celtics | 57c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Celtics vs. PistonsPistons won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Under won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.