NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca1f20af6f1419eeb98f24ea68d3d7de47bdd990fde5ba6d782560a6b8c1799

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Celticsof Pistons, Celtics
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $228,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $229,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,773 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Celtics	51c	92,672$47,192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45,480	518	44.4%230 W · 288 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pistons	51c	70,000$35,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35,699.98	431	48.7%210 W · 221 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Celtics	50c	32,765$16,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,353.79	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pistons	50c	30,000$15,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,000	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics	49c	25,862$12,687 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,174.96	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Pistons	49c	24,357$11,935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,934.93	195	60%117 W · 78 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pistons	49c	21,977$10,769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,768.63	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	50c	16,201$8,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,053.2	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Celtics	49c	14,807$7,255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,551.48	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Pistons	50c	12,179$6,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,090	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Celtics	49c	10,204$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,204.08	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Celtics	50c	9,266$4,633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,632.79	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Pistons	49c	9,080$4,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,449.2	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons	49c	7,924$3,883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,882.55	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics	48c	2,381$1,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,244.33	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040.82	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics	49c	1,618$786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$831.57	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Pistons	54c	1,512$822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821.71	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Pistons	55c	1,333$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons	49c	1,002$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.98	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Pistons	53c	900$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Celtics	49c	801.38$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.55	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Pistons	49c	720$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.8	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Pistons	50c	550$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	100	42%42 W · 58 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Pistons	49c	408.57$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	229	45.9%105 W · 124 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…cb29backed Pistons	52c	404.04$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.08	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Pistons	45c	400$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Pistons	47c	400$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.7	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+37%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons	53c	324.83$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.92	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pistons	50c	307.32$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.56	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Pistons	54c	240.74$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Pistons	51c	204.58$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.54	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Pistons	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Celtics	50c	199.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.93	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Celtics	51c	196.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.24	473	49%232 W · 241 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Pistons	50c	182$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Celtics	50c	169.16$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.29	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Pistons	51c	159.98$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.59	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Pistons	50c	155.04$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.85	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Pistons	50c	139.14$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.69	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Pistons	50c	138$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked Pistons	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Celtics	51c	117.65$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.65	362	47.5%172 W · 190 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef71…dedebacked Celtics	50c	114$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Pistons	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Pistons	49c	99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.72	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x402b…b3f0backed Celtics	50c	98$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc708…4ebcbacked Pistons	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Pistons	50c	93.96$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Celtics	51c	80.39$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.39	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Celtics	46c	73.3$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.58	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked Pistons	49c	71.78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.17	111	50.5%56 W · 55 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Celtics	52c	68.7$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.02	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pistons	49c	64$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Celtics	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed Pistons	49c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf417…0cf5backed Celtics	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Celtics	50c	55.27$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Celtics	47c	53.28$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.24	179	49.2%88 W · 91 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	50c	52.84$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Celtics	49c	52.33$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.78	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…8ff5backed Celtics	55c	50.53$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.74	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Celtics	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Celtics	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Celtics	44c	48.91$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.39	207	41.1%85 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Celtics	33c	47$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.49	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a1…3b93backed Pistons	51c	42.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	18	83.3%15 W · 3 L	+5.5wins	+0.30per pick	53cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Celtics	66c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Celtics	49c	39.22$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Celtics	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Pistons	44c	38.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	167	45.5%76 W · 91 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Pistons	49c	34.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	171	55.6%95 W · 76 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e2…3000backed Celtics	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Celtics	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Pistons	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Pistons	53c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Pistons	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	278	46.8%130 W · 148 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Celtics	50c	27.2$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	226	55.3%125 W · 101 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Pistons	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	323	52.6%170 W · 153 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons	49c	24.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0e…2d99backed Celtics	49c	23.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.99	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Pistons	51c	21.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	522	46.6%243 W · 279 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Celtics	51c	21.57$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	383	50.4%193 W · 190 L	+12.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6a…72e3backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event