NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2374329d250533b04246586750610e50ec1f7aeb918e8e34314ed62619e52b73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 9,178$4,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,864.39 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,770 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 6,427$3,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,277.7 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,413$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,297$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 1,246$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.84 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Over | 53c | 977.36$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…56febacked Over | 52c | 965.59$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 705$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 53c | 700.06$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.1 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 663.28$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.54 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 462.31$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 59c | 372.47$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 35c | 367.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 318.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 317.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 47c | 209.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Over | 55c | 182.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…9bcabacked Over | 33c | 172.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Over | 50c | 162.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 40c | 161.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 53c | 137.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed Over | 53c | 115.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4d…4eeebacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Over | 42c | 102.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…b402backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Under | 47c | 70.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Over | 53c | 65.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Over | 52c | 65.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…3fd1backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…2c8bbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…7025backed Under | 49c | 45.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 42.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Under | 51c | 40.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5613…31abbacked Over | 68c | 39.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 46c | 37.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Over | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Under | 47c | 32.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…6a5abacked Over | 53c | 32.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 48c | 32.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 31.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 48c | 29.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…6a59backed Over | 53c | 28.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 52c | 26.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Celtics vs. PistonsPistons won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Under won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.