NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb605101d35574484588aca6cb0e9405f53c9d53c72f83a0c458c8f856f6647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 8c | 777$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 31c | 766.3$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 37c | 739.82$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.35 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 11c | 655.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…0123backed Under | 62c | 583.87$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.87 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 23c | 511.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 36c | 349.26$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 61c | 343.72$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 64c | 324$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 299.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 292.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 227.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 61c | 206.3$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 64c | 188$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 25c | 165.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 22c | 144.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 123.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 114.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 24c | 102.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 73c | 92.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 74c | 78.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 39c | 61.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Under | 60c | 58.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66f…18efbacked Under | 61c | 52.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 50c | 43.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 34.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…1bc7backed Under | 75c | 30.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Under | 62c | 28.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Celtics vs. PistonsPistons won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.