NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x247157ced8f9911927549320c7f93c5781c13923500aa266824b50ba8e7c6163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $415,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $416,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 54c | 398,669$216,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216,451.99 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 45c | 159,999$72,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,999.45 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,000 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 40,000$18,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,800 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Over | 46c | 30,000$13,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,200 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 24,645$11,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,352.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 45c | 22,700$10,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,485.12 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 15,062$6,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,123.18 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 3,246$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 2,697$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.61 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,865$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 45c | 1,752$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.23 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 47c | 1,186$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.78 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 859.24$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.17 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 380$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 34c | 256$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 255.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 48c | 238.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 33c | 178.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 46c | 178.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 26c | 139.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 139.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…38c5backed Under | 76c | 113.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 30c | 111.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…d709backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 89.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Over | 38c | 86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…5655backed Under | 64c | 77.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…bd1ebacked Under | 65c | 76.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 72cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…0514backed Under | 70c | 71.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 44c | 70.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…cce1backed Under | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…0078backed Under | 72c | 69.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…8fa7backed Under | 72c | 69.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…2328backed Under | 72c | 69.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…4581backed Under | 73c | 67.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…5cfdbacked Under | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa040…0888backed Under | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7d5cbacked Under | 74c | 66.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…6a8bbacked Under | 76c | 65.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…46b9backed Under | 76c | 65.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…01a4backed Under | 75c | 63.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 75cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…8783backed Under | 78c | 61.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 28c | 57.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Over | 46c | 37.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Over | 45c | 36.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…b6c7backed Over | 46c | 35.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Over | 45c | 34.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 33.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 46c | 32.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…54d1backed Over | 45c | 26.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 23.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Over | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. CapitalsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.