NHL · resolved market

Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd821383309d3b6e568f52df56c4b5548b1699bee726eb1a4ff98185a4040d79

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $268,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $269,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,016 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under	44c	229,934$101,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101,646.26	203	54.2%110 W · 93 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Over	56c	150,000$84,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66,000	1,345	54.8%737 W · 608 L	+21.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over	55c	23,094$12,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,392.3	83	54.2%45 W · 38 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	56c	11,210$6,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,957.73	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	55c	10,772$5,951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,821.25	2,664	51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	56c	10,000$5,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,400	1,441	49.2%709 W · 732 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Under	45c	9,823$4,421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,420.54	225	50.2%113 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Over	55c	9,333$5,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,199.85	1,891	52.4%991 W · 900 L	+36.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Over	59c	8,431$4,997 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,433.73	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	43c	6,226$2,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,654.91	2,894	51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over	56c	6,000$3,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,640	304	47.4%144 W · 160 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over	56c	4,000$2,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,760	270	48.1%130 W · 140 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over	56c	3,500$1,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,539.99	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	56c	2,400$1,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,065	1,143	50.8%581 W · 562 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	35c	2,338$823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$822.91	2,112	42.9%907 W · 1,205 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under	42c	2,116$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888.82	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ea…0637backed Over	56c	2,000$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$880	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Over	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	296	51.7%153 W · 143 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Over	58c	1,886$1,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792.27	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	44c	1,442$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.48	793	50.1%397 W · 396 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	55c	1,363$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$613.35	1,230	53.7%661 W · 569 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Under	44c	1,276$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.38	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	55c	1,200$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	1,190	50.7%603 W · 587 L	+13.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	57c	1,140$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.2	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	56c	1,109$621 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.9	329	46.8%154 W · 175 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over	57c	1,001$571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.6	308	55.5%171 W · 137 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Over	57c	938.99$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.77	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-8.8wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	42c	504.83$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.08	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over	55c	477$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.65	831	49.5%411 W · 420 L	-9.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Over	55c	472.73$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.73	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	160	56.3%90 W · 70 L	+11.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	472	56.8%268 W · 204 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under	42c	300$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over	57c	281.4$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121	243	49.8%121 W · 122 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed Over	57c	263.16$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.16	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Over	57c	260.64$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.38	64	50%32 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Under	5c	248.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	57c	210.53$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.53	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	55c	196$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	849	53.8%457 W · 392 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over	55c	190$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.5	104	38.5%40 W · 64 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a9…ea7ebacked Over	57c	173.68$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.68	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+3.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	41c	173.64$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.96	129	43.4%56 W · 73 L	-9.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	44c	151.25$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.55	1,530	51.7%791 W · 739 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Over	57c	147.37$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.37	490	53.7%263 W · 227 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	56c	116$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.54	601	41.9%252 W · 349 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	56c	109.99$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.9	254	35.4%90 W · 164 L	-22.6wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Over	57c	105.26$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.26	151	55%83 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	96.03$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.78	629	51.2%322 W · 307 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over	57c	93.77$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.77	696	53.4%372 W · 324 L	-16.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under	43c	91.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	140	37.9%53 W · 87 L	-13.1wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2af0…8473backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-8.0wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Under	43c	89.3$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	285	50.2%143 W · 142 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Over	58c	86.3$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.3	185	51.9%96 W · 89 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc45…f8e3backed Over	50c	77$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.5	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.17per pick	45cpaid	+38.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60d…2204backed Over	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa26f…4b98backed Under	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Over	52c	67.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	432	56.5%244 W · 188 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Over	57c	59.14$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.43	100	59%59 W · 41 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+15%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	57c	55.02$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.66	786	51.8%407 W · 379 L	-16.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Under	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	1,377	49.1%676 W · 701 L	+39.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Under	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	124	45.2%56 W · 68 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4977…8fd6backed Over	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	177	54.2%96 W · 81 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Under	44c	49.91$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed Over	57c	44.14$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.98	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x892b…d315backed Over	59c	42.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Over	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	173	56.6%98 W · 75 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over	57c	39.98$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.19	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49f5…54d1backed Over	56c	39.15$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.23	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.29per pick	54cpaid	+55.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc82b…e65abacked Over	57c	35.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.08	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a3…790fbacked Under	45c	34.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.7wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+20%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	57c	29.65$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	96	49%47 W · 49 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x865a…901bbacked Over	59c	28.47$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	90	54.4%49 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f83…94cabacked Under	43c	23.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over	57c	22.81$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	196	52.6%103 W · 93 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	55c	22.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.24	451	51.2%231 W · 220 L	+16.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3945…7077backed Over	56c	21.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	50c	20.08$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	98	53.1%52 W · 46 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf389…e45dbacked Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e49…bd4bbacked Over	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a67…c830backed Over	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bdf…7f09backed Over	58c	18.93$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.95	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
Panthers vs. CapitalsPanthers won
Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Panthers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event