Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5484d7d357f83e18d59abc139e05866a13cb169c800ef399b1862d68d39c1a8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 25c | 1,615$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.79 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…b823backed No | 4c | 1,157$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,093$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 69c | 999.97$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 73c | 909.09$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.88 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 648.05$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…6ecfbacked Yes | 15c | 604.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 29c | 558.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.91 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 541.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.48 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 30c | 494.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.66 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 23c | 471.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.7 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 76c | 463.21$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.83 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 39c | 438.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.86 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 433.68$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.66 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 410.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 401.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.76 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…deeebacked No | 76c | 395.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 42c | 371.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 358.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 350.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.29 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 335.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.79 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 62c | 316.08$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed No | 21c | 313.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 19c | 306.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.78 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 304.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 66c | 294.62$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.09 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 31c | 279.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 76c | 272.5$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 262.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 23c | 249.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 27c | 243.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.76 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 38c | 238.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 18c | 236.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.59 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 18c | 236.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 233.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.34 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked Yes | 38c | 212.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 205.28$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 192.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 14c | 188.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 19c | 188$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.04 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 184.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 18c | 182.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 175.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 17c | 174.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 19c | 173.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 29c | 171.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 25c | 159.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 79c | 158.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 139.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 24c | 137.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 31c | 135.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 125.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 77c | 123.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 120.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed No | 71c | 120.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 23c | 117.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 65c | 114.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 66c | 113.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 32c | 110.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 108.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +272.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…bc6dbacked Yes | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 16c | 95.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…dc5fbacked Yes | 49c | 95.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 94.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 62c | 92.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 18c | 92.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 27c | 90.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…93e2backed No | 79c | 85.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 29c | 78.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…d478backed No | 69c | 78.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ee…1e97backed Yes | 37c | 78.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 65c | 75.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…bf6bbacked Yes | 42c | 73.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 34c | 73.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked No | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 40c | 71.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 42c | 71.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 70.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…b07abacked Yes | 25c | 68.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed Yes | 17c | 67.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed Yes | 18c | 67.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 20c | 67.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 62c | 67.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 59c | 67.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 30c | 64.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 73c | 63.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…8c61backed Yes | 24c | 63.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 18c | 63.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 21°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.