Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa267cc6fb054e8ce9029461cff07a80ee4934819221c577c2a4cc6461ea9ea9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 45c | 18,500$8,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,325 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed No | 55c | 18,500$10,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,325 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 55c | 1,689$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.32 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 1c | 995.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 67c | 694.29$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.64 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 71c | 612.41$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 55c | 576.49$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.41 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…8c61backed Yes | 76c | 568.91$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 540$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.65 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 57c | 524.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.67 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…b208backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 33c | 479.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.52 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 32c | 432.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 27c | 361.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 62c | 341.62$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.03 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 71c | 317.61$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.27 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 71c | 316.04$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 66c | 308.44$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 19c | 302.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 291.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 34c | 269.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 242.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 223.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 75c | 211.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 29c | 203.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 199.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 194.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 31c | 186.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…c22ebacked Yes | 63c | 175$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 48c | 165.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 66c | 156.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 34c | 156.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 21c | 155.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 68c | 153.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 49c | 152.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 53c | 150.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 28c | 145.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 62c | 144.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 138.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 40c | 136.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 73c | 136.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 135.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…67dcbacked Yes | 35c | 132.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 21c | 130$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 126.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 68c | 125.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 53c | 117.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b136backed Yes | 61c | 115.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…8b10backed Yes | 44c | 113.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 31c | 111.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 62c | 108.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 27c | 107.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 56c | 98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 39c | 96.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 26c | 94.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 43c | 90.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 58c | 89.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 33c | 88.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 48c | 86.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked No | 28c | 85.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 28c | 85.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed No | 21c | 85.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked No | 19c | 83.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 58c | 79.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4a80backed Yes | 78c | 79.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 74.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 27c | 70.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 70.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 44c | 68.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…27a5backed Yes | 33c | 62.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 59c | 62.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 77c | 62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 27c | 61.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…cd39backed Yes | 77c | 61.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…6ecfbacked No | 23c | 57.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff7…83aebacked Yes | 40c | 54.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed Yes | 75c | 52.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 52.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…7ae8backed Yes | 57c | 52.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 50.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…5315backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 36c | 49.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked No | 39c | 48.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 45.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 21°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.