Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77155bb76655ceb38bd18af3b88d3d801d8f864ff10c2fde5104c16acf352ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 6c | 5,074$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.45 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 3,240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,053$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,019$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,356$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 8c | 2,272$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,010$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 1,250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,219$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 3c | 1,208$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…6641backed Yes | 10c | 1,130$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 14c | 1,083$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 999.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 2c | 843.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 6c | 690.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 680.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 4c | 647.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 4c | 542.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 7c | 499.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 496$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 5c | 389.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…851dbacked Yes | 9c | 330.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 10c | 304.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 6c | 284.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 7c | 256.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…76f0backed Yes | 12c | 244.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 6c | 232.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 7c | 223.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 5c | 223.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 185.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 8c | 156.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 7c | 152.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 75c | 99.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 21°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.