Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa580caa2e04862b25e7cef29a0ccdb518fc38856662059c13d6fbb9e77760f06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 15c | 2,558$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.76 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 28c | 2,523$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.65 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 27c | 2,014$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 67c | 1,456$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 73c | 1,372$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.47 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,111$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 23c | 988.69$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 30c | 874.67$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.64 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 3c | 872.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 824.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 30c | 740.27$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 72c | 618.62$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 29c | 595.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 29c | 457.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 419.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 22c | 407.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 401.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 71c | 399.97$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 382.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 380.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 69c | 380.32$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 30c | 368.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 23c | 333.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 292.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 27c | 290$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 286.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 281.5$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 65c | 268.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 27c | 245.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 71c | 243.13$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 228.76$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 16c | 217.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 28c | 209.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 199.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 186.21$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 63c | 181.79$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 42c | 178.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 22c | 177.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 27c | 176$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 158.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 23c | 153.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed No | 65c | 152.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +272.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…864abacked Yes | 24c | 147.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +401.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 22c | 139.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 25c | 134.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 21c | 133.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…76f0backed Yes | 11c | 130.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 28c | 113.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 25c | 109.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b136backed Yes | 27c | 105.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 26c | 105.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 26c | 102.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 20c | 100.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…c22ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 37c | 95.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 79c | 94.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…91e9backed Yes | 15c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 71c | 92.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 26c | 91.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…a5b1backed No | 68c | 88.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 42c | 81.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 30c | 74.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 73.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed Yes | 23c | 72.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…7b3ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…831bbacked Yes | 21c | 64.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 66c | 63.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 36c | 57.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…bb3abacked Yes | 25c | 54.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 23c | 52.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 26c | 50.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…c3abbacked Yes | 25c | 47.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 34c | 45.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 28c | 44.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…cd39backed No | 55c | 43.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 40.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 38.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 38.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 36c | 38.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 21°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.